Technology invades the modern world

Chapter 121 It Really Rained (Seeking Monthly Tickets!)

Dean Guo said this because over the course of two weeks, everyone gradually realized how amazing the computing center was.

Numerous scientists approached him, hoping to expedite the priority of their research projects.

But everyone's is important, so why should yours be prioritized?

Then I'd like to trouble him to write a note, hoping that the word "urgent" can be added before my calculation task.

Under such circumstances, calculation tasks submitted by the meteorological bureau will be performed immediately, which shows that they are highly valued.

After all, this is related to agricultural production across the country.

The Raspberry Pi even created a collective misconception among the Chinese people.

That is, starting in 62, weather forecasts began to become more accurate, and people gradually developed the habit of listening to the weather forecast. Even rural residents were used to waiting at the village entrance to listen to the weather forecast before going to sleep.

But I don't know when it started, the weather forecast became less accurate than before, and then it slowly became more accurate again.

Can the accuracy of weather forecasts ever go backwards?

Actually, this is because Raspberry Pi has a lifespan. When its lifespan ends, the most direct effect on the outside world is that the Chinese people form a peculiar collective memory because of weather forecasts.

That being said, after Dean Guo finished speaking, Tu Changwang quickly waved his hand and said, "No, you misunderstood, Dean, that's not what I meant."

Of course I know that the Chinese Academy of Sciences has given the Meteorological Bureau the greatest support. What I want to ask is, what exactly is the accuracy of the computing center's calculations?
I need this information to plan this year's work.

Tu Changwang thought for a moment. He knew that Dean Guo was a scholar and might not know much about science and engineering, let alone the work of their meteorological bureau.

He continued, "Dean, it's like this: our current weather forecasting relies on meteorological observation stations all over the country. They record the data, then send it back to the meteorological bureaus in various places, and finally summarize it here."

There are now 262 sites nationwide, forming a network that covers the entire country.

However, the grid of this net is very large, with each grid being 200 kilometers long.

The smaller the grid, the more accurate our predictions will be.

Right now, we can probably only manage to get rain in North China and East China.

But if we shrink the grid, we can directly say that it will rain in Shanghai tomorrow, or that it will rain in Beijing tomorrow.

However, it's not that smaller grids are always better; smaller grids mean higher computational requirements.

Moreover, building a meteorological observation station requires costs. At the very least, observation equipment needs to be provided to staff, and then there needs to be a dedicated person in charge.

Therefore, we need to find a balance point, which requires knowing exactly how powerful the computing center's computing capabilities are.

Only then can we plan this year's work, including how many observation stations need to be added in different regions and how they should be deployed.

In fact, there was another problem with the observation stations in China at this time, namely, the uneven density distribution.

The density in the eastern region is 0.05 to 0.1 per 10,000 square kilometers, while it is much lower in the west.

"So could you please ask the comrades in the computing center what level of computing power he can achieve?"

"It would be best to have a quantifiable standard, such as the maximum number of rows and columns they can complete in four hours," Tu Changwang pleaded.

After listening to this, Dean Guo realized it was a genuine need, and said, "Wait a moment, I'll go ask around for you."

A short while later, Dean Guo returned to his office and said, "Whatever America's computer can do, we can do too."

But be careful to keep this a secret; don't tell anyone about it.

After listening, Tu Changwang roughly understood. "Okay, thank you, Dean Guo."

Now I understand.

Dean Guo continued, "Actually, I recommend that you cooperate with other departments."

It's not necessary to build a dedicated meteorological observation station; other departments can also cooperate and help you with observations.

Organizations like local businesses and local governments.

Tu Changwang nodded: "Okay, I'll consider it."

On his way back, he kept muttering to himself, countless ideas swirling in his mind.

I am not only excited that the Meteorological Bureau can provide more accurate forecasts for the people of the whole country and play a greater role in agricultural production, but I am also sincerely happy and proud that China has entered the world's leading ranks in the field of computer science.

Back at the weather bureau, he only spoke with the core scientists and briefly explained that their subsequent weather forecasting work should be fully aligned with America's.

At this moment, Ye Duzheng said:
"Actually, America's weather stations are not much more numerous than ours."

They only have 300 primary weather stations in total.

But they added something called volunteer sites. Through an organization called the COOP network, they built more than 5000 volunteer sites for observing meteorological data.

I think we could learn from their experience in this area.

Ye Duzheng is a PhD from the University of Chicago and is very familiar with meteorological observations in America.

Although he returned to his country 50 years ago, he was still able to glean insights into America's progress in this area from academic journals.

While academic journals naturally wouldn't have detailed data, he could make a reasonable inference based on what he learned in America and his own knowledge.

"If we can increase the density of our observation sites to the same level as America, then I think we will have the support of the computing center."

Our weather forecasts for China are no longer limited to Central China, East China, and North China; the accuracy should be improved to the level of half a province.

"It's similar to the level of rain in the southern part of Jiangbei Province and clouds in the north," Ye Duzheng added.

“Volunteer stations are a good idea, but from what I know, they’re not so easy to run,” Xie Yibing, who also holds a PhD in meteorology from the University of Chicago, added.

Xie Yibing continued, "The America Meteorological Bureau is mainly responsible for maintaining this volunteer network; they are responsible for providing observation equipment to the volunteer observation sites."

It should include a standard rain gauge, maximum and minimum thermometers, snowboards for measuring snowfall, and a measuring scale.

Tu Changwang said, "That's natural. We can't expect people to buy them and then observe them themselves."

Xie Yibing nodded: "That's natural. The biggest problem isn't that. Of course, America's weather bureau will provide training and guidance to volunteers, as well as regular equipment maintenance."

These are all basic tasks.

In fact, some long-term volunteers, if interested, can also help train new volunteers.

That's not a problem.

However, they compiled the data by telephone or telegram.

We can't possibly provide every volunteer with a phone. Nowadays, especially in rural areas, very few people have a phone, let alone a telegram.

They might only be able to get there by mail, but that would be too slow.

There's another point: in America, cars are already quite common.

This makes it very convenient to train volunteers; you can just drive there yourself.

In China, the most basic administrative unit is the county. A county might only have one vehicle. How could they possibly give it to a meteorological bureau staff member to drive to train volunteers?
If workers have to walk or cycle in remote areas, it's too inefficient. So ultimately it comes down to a productivity issue.

China's current productivity is insufficient to support the construction of a denser meteorological observation network, even if the public is willing to provide assistance to the best of their ability.

It's also difficult for them to do.

After listening, Tu Changwang also realized the problem. He sighed and said, "I understand. The volunteer network project will be put on hold for now."

We communicated with meteorological bureaus in various regions, asking them to increase the number of meteorological observation stations as much as possible based on the existing infrastructure.

I will also try my best to secure funding support.

In addition, we need to optimize the existing models. This is something we can do right now, so we must do it well.

I'm sure everyone has heard how popular the computing center is. It's safe to say they've been supporting the weather bureau wholeheartedly, and we absolutely cannot let them down.

Furthermore, if you encounter any difficulties with model optimization, you can discuss them with the people at the Institute of Mathematics. I've already spoken with their director about this.

At that time, the director of the Institute of Mathematics was Su Buqing.

In the staff dormitory of Shenhai Textile Factory, Liu Guodong and Xiao Fang are a typical working couple in Shenhai. The former works in the machinery factory, and the latter works in the textile factory.

That evening, unlike usual, Xiaofang went home first and Liu Guodong came home later.

Today was Xiaofang's last day home. As usual, she returned home after get off work and saw Liu Guodong tidying up the quilt covers that were drying on the clothesline in the common area. Xiaofang didn't say anything but helped him tidy them up.

"It's still a bit damp, why didn't you let it dry a little longer?" After returning home, Xiaofang asked as she prepared to wash her hands and start preparing dinner.

Liu Guodong said, "Didn't you listen to the weather forecast? It says it's going to rain tomorrow."

Xiaofang thought for a moment and nodded: "I see."

She couldn't help but ask curiously, "Don't you usually never listen to the weather forecast? Why are you suddenly paying attention to it?"

Due to the nature of the work, textile factory work is closely related to the weather.

After all, rain affects the transportation of textile factories. If it rains while you are transporting cotton, you can only stop and wait for the rain to stop before continuing.

Secondly, some other processes that require being in the sun are all dependent on the weather.

Machinery factories are different; they are all located in factory buildings and are not greatly affected by the weather.

Even if the rainy season in Shenhai lasts a long time, it won't have much of an impact on the machinery factory.

Therefore, the two people have completely different levels of concern about the weather.

Even knowing that it might rain the next day, Liu Guodong would wave his hand and say it's fine, getting a little wet is good, and then leave home, not caring if he got wet on the way there or back.

Xiao Fang had never seen Liu Guodong pay attention to the weather forecast before.

"I heard it from my colleagues at work; they said the weather forecast has become unusually accurate."

So I observed it for a while, and it really is very accurate; it has been accurate for many days in a row.

When it says it will be sunny, it really won't rain; when it says it will rain, it really will rain.

I also asked my colleagues in Xuzhou, because the weather forecast predicted light snow the day before yesterday, and February was almost over there. Guess what? It really did snow lightly.

"Isn't that amazing?!"

Liu Guodong looked excited. "With such accurate weather forecasts, agricultural production this year will improve significantly. We might get more orders for our agricultural machinery, and we could make an extra two kilograms of meat by the end of the year."

Xiao Fang seemed to be thinking, "It seems that's really true. In the past, the weather forecast was often wrong for two out of seven days. Whenever it was wrong, the factory manager would complain."

It seems he hasn't complained at all lately.

Including Lao Zhang from the transportation department, I passed by their department the day before yesterday, and they seemed to have mentioned the weather forecast as well.

I guess it means the weather forecast is more accurate now.

If the workers could be aware of this, then the farmers, who are even more sensitive to the weather, were even more so.

In the area north of Yanjing, the fields in January were still covered with remnants of snow, and green shoots floated in the wheat fields.

Huogen is an old farmer, unlike the younger generation in the commune. He listens to the weather forecast regularly every day.

In his view, having something is better than having nothing, compared to the past.

Weather forecasts are at least 60-70% accurate. Isn't 60-70% enough?
In the past, they relied entirely on experience to predict the weather.

Now that we have the tools, we're still not satisfied.

As usual, he ran to the only loudspeaker in the community and squatted down, where it was already full of people.

After all, this is a rare form of entertainment these days, and they don't have the extra money to buy a television.

The loudspeaker hanging on the old paulownia tree crackled: "We have received a notification from the weather station that there will be continuous rainfall from the 18th to the 20th of this month."

The younger generation in the village expressed their disbelief one after another.

"If you said it would only be one day, I could barely believe you, but you're predicting three days, from the 18th to the 20th! How can I believe that!"

"Stop bragging. Whenever the weather station forecasts the weather for more than three days, it's wrong nine times out of ten. But if they honestly forecast for one day, it's actually quite accurate."

"Let's just go and water the fields instead of waiting for three days of continuous rain."

"If it really rains for three days straight, I'm afraid it will be difficult to turn the soil."

"The weather station is still unreliable. It's always trying to create a big news story. Wouldn't it be better to just focus on accurately predicting the day's conditions?"

Everyone shared their stereotypes about weather stations and also talked about this year's harvest.

Only Huo Genxin said, "Shouldn't we prepare in advance? In case of heavy rain, we should arrange for people to dig drainage ditches."

"I'm telling you, Uncle Huogen, it's not accurate. Look at the sky, it doesn't look like it's going to rain for three days straight."
"You've seen wheat ripen time and again, don't you understand the ways of nature?"

"I believe in science."

"The problem is that it's not scientific."

On the morning of the third day, cumulonimbus clouds suddenly appeared in the sky, and raindrops dripped onto the ground, spreading along the river.

Huo Gen squatted on the warehouse threshold, thinking, "They've come after all."

When I opened the door and looked out, I could hear muffled thunder in the southeast sky; it was clear that this rain wouldn't end anytime soon.

Suddenly, a commotion erupted in the wheat field as the commune was arranging for people to operate waterwheels and repair the drainage ditches.

For a moment, farmers wrapped in raincoats moved about in the rain.

"Oh, it really is raining."

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(End of this chapter)