Technology invades the modern world

Chapter 134 The Cuban Crisis
"Speak directly to Nikita?"

Everyone present repeated Lin Ran's words.

Lin Ran replied matter-of-factly, "That's right."

The White House and the Kremlin are now the two sides in this power struggle.

From a game theory perspective, the more information one has, the more rational one's decisions will be.

With more information, we can more accurately assess the situation, predict the behavior of our adversaries, and choose the optimal strategy.

A game of complete information is one in which all participants know the rules of the game and the possible actions of their opponents.

The most typical example should be chess.

In chess, both sides will make what they believe to be the best decision.

Now that we know the exact information about the Soviet Union's missile deployment, we have the conditions to construct a game of complete information.

So we're still missing one piece of the puzzle, which is the strategic intentions of Soviet Russia.

Their motives for doing this.

During the debate, I was unable to determine whether to support General LeMay, Secretary McNamara, or Secretary Rusk.

As an absolutely rational individual, I also find it difficult to make decisions without more information.

If the Soviet Union's objective is strategic defense, then I would support Rusk, and we should exert pressure through diplomatic means.

If the Soviet Union's intention is to threaten us or create a deterrent, then I would support General LeMay; we must dispel such ideas.

The more information participants have, the more accurately they can calculate the expected returns of each strategy, thus choosing the optimal action.

In reality, absolutely ideal cases like chess are rare. Complete information is scarce; most games are based on incomplete information, where participants need to infer their opponent's intentions based on limited information.

At this point, we can introduce a new approach, namely Bayesian rationality theory.

Bayesian rationality assumes that participants form prior beliefs based on existing information, and update these beliefs through Bayes' theorem as new information arrives, thereby optimizing decision-making.

New information reduces uncertainty, bringing us closer to the true state and thus improving the rationality of our decisions.

This can be expressed mathematically using Bayes' theorem:

Lin Ran got up and wrote the formula on the whiteboard with a marker:

“P(A|B) here is the updated adjustment of the initial belief P(A) based on the new evidence B.”

What we need to do now is to continuously gather new information to update our assessment of Soviet intentions and then adjust our strategy accordingly.

So now that we have a hotline, we can directly probe their true thoughts through this method.

Lin Ran spoke eloquently in the west wing office. He sensed that Li Mei had something to say and anticipated her remarks:
"General, I know you'll say that Nikita might not be telling the truth."

He might lie, he might pretend, he might give us the wrong information, hoping we will misjudge the strategy.

Your idea is correct, but incorrect information is still information, and incorrect information can also help us find the other party's true intentions through the fog.

McNamara nodded repeatedly as he listened: "I think the professor's idea is excellent. We need more information to help us make a judgment."

Now that we can directly contact the Kremlin, why not just ask them?

In McNamara's view, Lin Ran's suggestion had no logical flaws and there was no reason to oppose it.

"He even laid out the formula for you. It's so elegant. No wonder he's a math master," McNamara thought to himself.

Kennedy glanced around at the expressions of the White House bureaucrats in the conference room, then said, "I suggest we vote."

Lin Ran didn't expect that when Kennedy mentioned voting, he meant they should vote, and he wouldn't.

The seven people present (the Vice President, Secretary of State, Air Force representative, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, National Security Advisor, and Special Assistant for Space Affairs) voted by a show of hands on whether to contact the Kremlin directly via hotline.

In the end, with an overwhelming vote of 6 to 1, only Li Mei opposed the motion.

Kennedy nodded. "Okay, I'll contact Nikita right now."

The hotline established between the White House and the Kremlin was not a telephone, but a teletype machine.

Furthermore, it's not like you can just send a message and expect the other party to reply immediately.

In general, for situations like this, the assistant needs to send a message first to schedule a time with the other party, such as having the conversation at 5 PM Eastern Time.

Then both sides stood in front of the teletype machine, waiting for the other to transmit the message.

The same applies now; when Kennedy said he would contact the other party, he was simply saying he would arrange a time to do so.

"Everyone, please think carefully about how we should ask our questions," Kennedy instructed before leaving.

After Kennedy left, Lyndon Johnson took over the chair of the meeting.

Lyndon Johnson put down his pen, looked up and surveyed the crowd, his voice low and deep:
"Gentlemen, we don't have much time. We need a question now, one that will get him to reveal his true intentions, but without making him feel like we are directly threatening him."

Robert Kennedy said, “Linden, we can’t let him think we’re backing down. I suggest asking him directly: ‘Why are you deploying missiles in Cuba?’ That way he’ll have to answer his motives directly.”

McNamara shook his head slightly, tapping his fingers on the file: "Too direct. That sounds like an accusation, and he might become even more aggressive."

I think we should have been more tactful, for example, by asking, "Would you be willing to discuss our military deployments in Cuba?" This would have given him a way out and also allowed us to gauge his attitude.

Rusk got up and paced around the room: "I agree with McNamara. We need to give him space to explain himself."

I suggested asking: 'Does your military aid to Cuba go beyond defensive purposes?' This would both highlight our concerns and avoid direct confrontation.

Security advisor Bondi crossed his arms, his expression grave: “I think we can be more specific. Ask him: ‘Are you willing to let us send people to Cuba to inspect those missile bases?’ That would be a direct test of his sincerity, to see if he really wants to negotiate.”

Lyndon Johnson leaned back in his chair, pondered for a moment, and said, “Bondy, your suggestion makes sense, but they’re unlikely to agree to send someone to inspect. He’d feel like he’d lost face.”

Especially since our communication is via telegram, which leaves a written record, the other party is even less likely to agree under such circumstances. We need a more subtle question that will allow him to speak without losing his dignity.

General LeMay, her expression excited and her voice high, said, "Linden, we can't delay! Every minute that passes brings those missiles closer to launch. We need to let him know our resolve; asking ambiguous questions will only waste time!"

McNamara gently patted LeMay's shoulder, reassuring her, "General, I understand your concerns. But we can't let emotions take over. If we push too hard, Nikita might make a desperate move. We need to calm down."

McNamara then opened the document in his hand and said calmly, "According to intelligence, the other side may have deployed missiles in Cuba to balance our missiles in Turkey. Perhaps we can ask: 'Are you willing to withdraw your missiles from Cuba while we withdraw ours from Turkey?' This could open the door to negotiations."

Rusk frowned. "This sounds like we're making concessions. If they publish our information in the newspapers, it will be very bad for the White House."

Bondi nodded in agreement, "That's right. Offering to withdraw the missiles would make us seem weak. It would be even worse if such a thing were recorded in writing."

Lyndon Johnson took a deep breath. “I understand. Perhaps we can ask: ‘Are you willing to work with us to find a peaceful solution to avoid the danger of nuclear war?’ This would express our position while leaving room for dialogue.”

Li Mei shook her head and said, "This is too vague, Lyndon! I'm sure Nikita will just give us a few vague answers and we won't get anything. We need something more specific."

McNamara pondered for a moment, then looked up and suggested, "Perhaps we could ask: 'Are you willing to withdraw Cuban missiles under the supervision of the United Nations?'"

This is tantamount to involving the international community.

While putting pressure on the other party, give both sides a buffer.

Rusk nodded and said, "That's a good idea. The United Nations can make things more under control."

At this point, Lin Ran suggested, "I think the first question should be to ask him directly: what is his explanation for the military deployment in Cuba? The second question is whether you are willing to withdraw the missiles from Cuba under the supervision of the United Nations."

Instead of reaching a conclusion, the group decided to write the problem on a whiteboard and wait for Kennedy to return and confirm it.

Kennedy walked into the conference room with a confident smile: "The Kremlin has agreed. I suspect they also want to test our thinking."

"Everyone, how's the discussion going?"

Lyndon Johnson pointed to the whiteboard behind the other person: "We've written our ideas on your back."

Inside the Kremlin, heavy wooden doors were tightly shut, and portraits of Lenin and maps of Soviet Russia hung on the walls. A newly translated telegram lay on the center of a long table, surrounded by key decision-makers. A tense and uneasy atmosphere permeated the air.

Nikita picked up the telegram, his tone tinged with displeasure: "Comrades, Kennedy sent us this telegram with a simple question: 'What is your explanation for the military deployment in Cuba?' What does he mean by this? He's testing us, trying to make us reveal our hand. How should we answer?"

Gromyko slowly put down the telegram, his tone calm: "Nikita Sergeyevich, this is a carefully crafted question from the White House. Kennedy didn't directly accuse us, nor did he mention the missiles, which indicates he was testing our stance."

I believe we should emphasize that our actions in Cuba are defensive, helping Cuba resist the threat from the United States, while avoiding a direct admission of the missile's existence.

It wasn't really a carefully planned scheme; the White House officials probably didn't even have an hour to discuss it.

This world is just a huge makeshift team.

Malinowski spoke forcefully, slamming his fists on the table: "Defensive? Why are you being so secretive? We deployed missiles in Cuba to protect Cuba and prevent America from launching another invasion like the Bay of Pigs."

Kennedy knew it himself! We should have told him directly that this was a response to their deployment of missiles in Italy and Turkey.

Mikoyan smiled and shook his head: "Comrade Malinovsky, your position is firm, but your tone is too harsh. Kennedy is very nervous right now; he may already be considering military options. We need to give him a way out, to make him feel that we can negotiate, rather than confront him directly."

Nikita frowned, pondered for a moment, and said, “I agree with Mikoyan. We can’t let Kennedy feel that we are provoking him, but we also can’t appear weak. We need a response that is both firm and flexible, letting him know that our actions in Cuba are justified, while leaving some room for maneuver.”

Biruzov said coldly, “The missiles are already deployed and ready to be launched at any time. We have sufficient deterrence and do not need to back down. If they dare to make a move, we will make them pay the price.”

Nikita glared at Bilyuzov, his tone stern: "Comrade Bilyuzov, nuclear war is no child's play! Do you think we can solve the problem by pressing a button? That would drag the whole world into an abyss! We must be cautious and not rashly resort to this last resort!"

Gromyko nodded in agreement, saying, "Sergeyevich is right. I suggest our response highlight our assistance to Cuba, showing that our aid is to protect Cuba from aggression. At the same time, we can imply that we are also willing to participate if the United States is willing to discuss broader disarmament issues. This way, we can both maintain our position and open a door for negotiations."

Malinowski waved his hand impatiently: "Disarmament? Talking about disarmament now is too hypocritical! America has deployed missiles in Turkey, threatening our security. We should directly ask them to withdraw the missiles first, and in exchange, we will consider the deployment in Cuba."

Mikoyan advised, "Comrade Malinovsky, your suggestion is reasonable, but the timing is wrong. If we propose a deal now, Kennedy will feel we are blackmailing him. We should leave ourselves some room to maneuver."

Nikita took a deep breath and tapped his fingers on the table:
“I understand. Our response must be neither weak nor provocative. We must let Kennedy know that our actions in Cuba are to protect our allies and defend against threats from America. At the same time, we can imply that we are not opposed if America is willing to discuss global security issues.”

Gromyko picked up his pen, ready to take notes: "Specifically, we could reply like this: 'Soviet aid to Cuba is intended to help the Cuban government strengthen its defense capabilities against external threats. Our actions are not intended to threaten America's security, but we hope that America will also respect Cuba's sovereignty. If America is willing to discuss global military deployments and disarmament issues, the Soviet Union is willing to participate in the dialogue.'"

Malinowski frowned and said with displeasure, "That sounds too soft. We should be tougher and remind Kennedy that your missiles in Turkey also threaten us."

Nikita waved his hand to interrupt: "Comrade Malinovsky, now is not the time. We cannot mention Turkey directly in the first telegram; we can bring up this condition in subsequent negotiations."

Mikoyan nodded: "Let's first keep Kennedy calm, give him a vague but sincere answer, so he feels that we can talk. Then, we'll see his next reaction and decide how to adjust our strategy."

Nikita paused for a moment, then nodded. “Alright, let’s go with that approach. Gromyko, you draft the telegram, emphasizing defensiveness and hinting at the possibility of negotiation, but don’t make any specific promises. We need to let Kennedy figure it out himself.”

Gromyko stood up, his tone firm: "Understood. I will draft the telegram as soon as possible and submit it to you for review."

Nikita: "Meeting adjourned. Hopefully Kennedy will remain rational and not corner us."

After the telegram was sent to the Kremlin, the White House awaited a reply from the Kremlin. Lin Ran privately approached Kennedy and said, "Mr. President, I have a better idea."

I believe the Kremlin would be interested in these negotiating terms.

Kennedy, clearly intrigued, said, "Tell me about it."

Lin Ran said, "That means the White House will remove the missile bases in Italy and Turkey."

From Washington to conservative newspapers, there was a constant stream of talk about Lin Ran being a Soviet agent, but Kennedy had never doubted it before.

Now I'm really starting to have doubts.

He narrowed his eyes. "You dare to make such a demand?"

Although this is a double standard, America has always been one.

“Impossible!” Kennedy retorted instinctively.

Lin Ran said, "Mr. President, I haven't finished yet. This is the price we've offered."

Similarly, the other party must also agree to the conditions.

That would mean removing the Cuban missiles while America TV could broadcast the entire event live.

Our missile withdrawal was a private, secret withdrawal.

The withdrawal of the enemy's missiles under the scrutiny of the world is a great victory for the White House!

The Kremlin backed down; they were afraid of competing with the White House. Not only were their missiles in Cuba to be withdrawn, but the withdrawal would also be monitored and supervised by the Americans.

This was a fair agreement for both sides, and we even saved face.

This is actually the final solution to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

After a long and drawn-out negotiation, the final agreement reached by both sides was roughly this.

America verbally agreed to withdraw the missiles in Italy and Turkey, and Robert Kennedy personally explained to the Soviet ambassador in Washington, D.C., that the president was under pressure from the military and the executive committee to not issue a written consent, but that he would actually guarantee to do so.

The Soviet Union agreed that the missile withdrawal process would be monitored by America, and Cuba opened its airspace over some ports, allowing America's reconnaissance planes to fly low and closely film the intermediate-range missile loading process. Kennedy used this opportunity to have the entire process broadcast live on television by the public media.

However, Lin Ran's proposal, viewed in today's context, is a solution, but without the build-up of tension, it seems somewhat out of place.

“I will seriously consider it,” Kennedy said noncommittally.

(End of this chapter)