The American Kill Line: I Can Predict the Future

"Ron, are you sure you want to put the euro options now? This is not a good time. I advise you to think carefully."

That afternoon, Tony, a manager at Merrill Lynch, and Victor, a broker, arrived at Ron's residence.

The two reacted very differently when they learned that Ron wanted to put on euro options.

Merrill Lynch's manager, Tony, looked knowing but inwardly scorned him.

Ron's behavior may seem absurd, but it fits their expectations of him.

You can't look at a billionaire who becomes rich overnight in the financial market with normal eyes.

Having had two strokes of luck and tasted success, it's not surprising that such a person would make any kind of decision.

Victor, as Ron's agent, hopes that Ron won't go bankrupt so soon.

After all, Ron is currently his biggest client.

Although the EU announced a bailout plan, questions have been raised about its proposed €7500 billion package.

After a brief surge, the euro has been falling in recent days.

The market is extremely volatile.

At this point, it's not a good time to put euro options.

Not only is it difficult to make a profit, but any piece of news could very likely trigger large fluctuations.

Ron knew that Viktor's advice was the most pertinent thing to say.

But he couldn't explain it to the other party, so he could only act like they were foolish and rich:

"Victor, you yourself said that the market is questioning the EU. If that's the case, why not invest as well? It doesn't matter how much you make, it's still better than keeping 1 million in cash in the bank earning interest."

Although he still doesn't quite understand why the euro plummeted despite Germany banning naked short selling.

What exactly is "naked short selling"?

He just checked, and the highest exchange rate for the euro against the dollar in the past three days was 1.2455.

It is significantly different from the 1.2143 recorded after the 18th.

This price level is even lower than the last flash crash in the US stock market.

What policy directive caused the euro to plummet?

However, despite not understanding it, he believed in his "precognitive" abilities.

As long as you time your purchase well, such as entering the market on the 17th, there shouldn't be any major problems.

"That being said, I still hope you'll think it over carefully," Viktor said helplessly.

What he really wanted to say was that at least you get stable interest if you put your money in the bank.

However, in the foreign exchange market, especially in a massive market like the euro-dollar exchange rate, $1 million is just a drop in the ocean.

Even a slight fluctuation can wipe out millions or even tens of millions.

"Alright, Victor, don't mislead Ron."

Seeing that Ron was starting to get impatient, Tony changed the subject: "So, Ron, when are you planning to enter the market? Or are you going all in?"

He's a fool, so we should just go along with him.

Besides, it's much more rational to be bearish on euro options now than last time.

Ron's actions last time are still incomprehensible to the industry.

The entire market was pessimistic, but this fool went against the grain.

The key point is that he actually guessed right in the end.

"Next Monday, we'll see how things go then. As for whether to go all in..." Ron said in a deep voice, "It's tentative."

He wanted to profit from both market movements.

"Okay, Merrill Lynch is at your service! You can discuss the details with Victor. I have something to attend to, so I'll be going now."

After seeing Tony off, Ron and Victor returned to the study.

The two spent the entire afternoon in the study discussing how to enter on Monday.

He is now a high-net-worth client of Merrill Lynch. For large transactions by such clients, Merrill Lynch will prioritize splitting the funds into more than a dozen different brokers to smooth out the transaction traces.

Unlike last time, it didn't become public knowledge.

During this time, Alexandra brought in coffee twice, and spent the rest of the time helping the nanny tidy up the house.

And she even thoughtfully prepared dinner herself.

Time flies.

Ron and Alexandra spent most of their time playing on Saturday and Sunday.

During the day, he drives his Lexus LFA sports car through the streets of New York, and at night he plays bowling at home.

The market opened on Monday evening.

As agreed beforehand, Victor used multiple sub-accounts to buy euro put options at the highest price of the day, each for $5000 million with a strike price of 1.2200.

They all built their positions in staggered increments of several million or tens of millions.

In the vast foreign exchange market, this is like a stream flowing into the sea, without causing a ripple.

The last short order was completed at 6 PM on Monday.

These are points that the two carefully calculated based on the previous week's fluctuations and today's increase.

Unless there is positive news, the probability of a margin call is not high.

Currently, the market still has doubts about the EU's debt problem.

"OK! Let's wait for news tomorrow."

After a busy day, Ron shut down his newly assembled dual-screen computer and stretched his back while looking out the window.

German time is 6 hours ahead of New York time.

In other words, Germany will announce the ban no later than 6 p.m. New York time tomorrow.

"Honey, you're finally done with your work."

Alexandra came over with a glass of water.

Ron had been busy in her study all day, and feeling bored, she wandered around the neighborhood.

Ron is a high-level client of Bank of America, a status that provides him with access to services.

Alexandra used this as leverage to book a last-minute appointment with a top-tier esthetician at the private rooftop spa of Saks Fifth Avenue near her apartment for a facial and skin treatment.

Then she went to the Hermès private showroom next door. There was no need to queue, and the sales assistant had prepared the latest seasonal styles for her to choose from.

I also stopped by a private jewelry studio on the way.

Lunch was at a hidden gem of a French restaurant on 63rd Street, Madison Avenue.

French confit duck, light salad, and a glass of white wine. In a private booth, she dined alone while chatting with her celebrity best friend in Hollywood.

After lunch, Alexandra packed a lunch for Ron and returned to the apartment.

Then I took a short nap.

At 3:30 p.m., she started exercising and doing yoga in her room.

Even though I've dated a billionaire, I can't neglect my career.

Her figure is her biggest advantage in Hollywood.

It was almost five o'clock when she changed into a casual dress and started preparing dinner while watching TV.

Ron took the water, sipped it, and said wearily, "It's still early. You're off tonight."

He only knew that Germany would announce the ban on the 18th, but he didn't know the exact time.

He has to keep an eye on the market at all times.

To avoid missing the best time to close out a position.

After dinner, Ron held Alexandra in his arms and sat on the newly bought lounge chair on the terrace.

I bought this recliner a couple of days ago; it looks no different from a regular sofa or recliner.

There's actually a small mechanism behind the back that can be folded up.

A person can lie on it, which is both comfortable and provides support for the bowling ball.

The visual impact is maximized when it's swaying.

If Ron were to lie on it, the stretchers on both sides could rotate to the top of his head.

Make some appropriate size adjustments to lock his wrist.

It must be said that Alexandra truly deserves to be called an actress.

He portrayed various roles exceptionally well.

Doctors, flight attendants, and teachers are among the most basic professions.

The highest level of expertise is that of prosecutors who, in the face of various coercive tactics employed by criminals, still uphold justice and resist tenaciously.

"I watched 007 all afternoon today. Being an undercover agent is a great profession!"

"So, my dear agent, tell me, have you thought about how you'll deal with the torture if the mission fails?"

"Yes, my wicked sir. I'm professionally trained, and none of your tortures will break me."

That night, Ron subjected the undercover agent who had infiltrated his inner circle to severe torture.

Meanwhile, in Germany, in central Europe, a ten-hour meeting is underway.

February 18th, 5 PM.

It's 1 p.m. New York time.

Germany officially announced:

Starting from the 19th, naked short selling of 10 major German financial stocks, Eurozone government bonds, and related credit default swaps is prohibited.

Suddenly, the world's attention was focused on Germany.

The EU was caught off guard by Germany's ban.

Because Germany didn't consult with them beforehand.

No related information has been released at all.

Faced with inquiries from the media and countries around the world, the EU remained silent while convening an emergency meeting.

The whole world was in an uproar.

"This is a classic policy mistake!"

"Germany's actions repeat the mistake of banning short selling of bank stocks in 2008, and will only cause more panic in the market!"

"This is not a beneficial policy; it's more like an unconventional measure during a crisis."

"The EU's debt situation is worse than we thought!"

"This is betrayal, a betrayal of the rest of the EU!"

Germany's unilateral action was seen by investors worldwide as a "desperate move."

Almost immediately, all the short sellers focused on shorting the euro.