The American Kill Line: I Can Predict the Future

Tesla's market capitalization once exceeded $23 billion on its first day of trading, with its stock price rising by 40%.

Unexpectedly, the market opened lower the next day.

The retail investors who bought in yesterday weren't stupid; they immediately sensed the danger.

"Fuck! The big spender ran away?"

"No way, it's only the second day? I bought it yesterday at $21, I even mortgaged my kidney."

"With this kind of mentality, you dare to dabble in finance? I bought in at 23 yuan, do you think I panicked?"

"It should be a technical adjustment. The Nasdaq is also fluctuating. Newly listed stocks can always rise for three consecutive days."

"Just one more day, tomorrow is the day the Q1 financial report will be released. Electric vehicles only have a generator, how much could that cost?"

"I think so too. They sell a car for $100,000. Fuck, if I had $100,000, I'd have to be crazy to buy an electric car."

"Thanks to Tesla, it only rips off rich people."

That's actually true; a budget of $100,000 in the US can easily cover a dozen or twenty high-performance luxury gasoline cars.

Let alone the BMW 7 Series, Mercedes-Benz S-Class, Audi A8, and Porsche 911.

For an average middle-class family, the budget for a car is only between $3 and $5.

The standard Tesla model sells for $10.9, while the sport model sells for $12.8.

If this isn't a scam targeting rich people, who else could it be?

In fact, rich people aren't stupid.

The following day, Tesla released its Q1 financial report: a loss of $2940 million and revenue of only $2080 million.

"Walter?"

"Isn't this a fucking scam?"

"Complaint! Complaint!"

"What's the point of complaining? Just run! The Nasdaq is up, all the blue-chip stocks are rising, only this fraudulent company is falling."

"Brothers, wait a minute! Don't run away, save my kidney!"

"Bro, I advise you to just cash out and run. At least you'll still have one left. If you run now, you can at least have some money to take care of your health, and if all else fails, you can just not find a girlfriend in the future."

"I mortgaged everything."

"??????"

"I know a friend who can send people to Mexico. Contact me if you need help."

With the release of its Q1 financial report, Tesla's downward trend has become unstoppable.

Even retail investors who bought in at the high point on the first day chose to quickly cut their losses.

Only those whose costs are simply too high are still struggling to stay afloat.

For five consecutive days, Tesla's stock price plummeted.

Ultimately, it stopped at its offering price of $17 when Independence Day arrived on July 5th.

It's not that the market has stabilized, but rather that it's closed for Independence Day.

Everyone knows that the stock price will inevitably fall below the issue price when the market opens on the 6th.

It all depends on how low it eventually falls.

Musk rushed back to New York from Silicon Valley overnight to contact underwriters such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to activate the "greenshoe option".

US stock market rules do not allow original shareholders, executives, early-stage venture capitalists, etc., of listed companies to repurchase shares during the lock-up period.

However, to prevent malicious short selling, the official system has set up the "greenshoe option," which is an over-allotment option.

Commonly known as market support.

According to the rules, underwriters can only activate the "greenshoe option" if the share price falls below the offering price.

Tesla's underwriters—Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and others—have the right to over-allot 15% of the shares within 30 days at the offering price.

Approximately 200 million shares.

"Elon, I must make this clear to you: given Tesla's current situation, if things are beyond our control, we can only apologize."

This is what a marketing executive at Morgan Stanley told Musk.

The meaning is simple: when sell orders continue to pour in, these underwriters will assess the situation and, if they feel that supporting the price is useless, they will stop operating to avoid their own losses.

"I see."

Musk is well aware that, ultimately, underwriters also need to make money.

If the selling pressure from institutions exceeds the funds used to support the market, they will at most try it out, but will stop immediately once the institutions start dumping shares.

After saying goodbye to the underwriters, Musk dialed Ron's number.

Upon learning that Ron was at home, they went straight to his house.

Ron opened the door and was startled to see Musk: "Elon, you've been robbed?"

At this moment, Musk was nowhere near as spirited as he was just a few days earlier when he rang the Nasdaq bell.

He looked like he hadn't slept for days and nights.

The smell emanating from him made Ron pinch his nose.

Kate even took her laptop and ran back to her room.

Musk, oblivious to everything, choked back a sob: "Could I have a cup of coffee first?"

"You should have a bottle of water." Ron noticed that his lips were burning, so he took a bottle of ice water from the refrigerator and tossed it to him.

"Thanks!"

Musk, disregarding his image, took large gulps of the drink.

He didn't feel alive again until he finished a 500ml bottle of water.

"Ron..."

Musk stood up for help.

Ron quickly stopped him from coming closer, saying, "Wait, could you go take a shower first, okay?"

Musk paused for a moment, then sniffed himself and said apologetically, "Sorry, I've been at the company for the past two days and just came from Silicon Valley today."

Westerners have large pores, especially in summer.

Having not showered for two days, you can imagine how strong the smell must have been.

"Go take a shower first. What size clothes do you need? I'll have someone bring a set up."

Ron knew why Musk looked like that; he wouldn't have looked much better in his shoes.

He called the clothing store, then asked Kate to come out and make a pot of coffee, and also brought out some sandwiches.

Musk took a shower, changed his clothes, but his fatigue lingered.

It wasn't until I finished two sandwiches and a cup of coffee that I truly felt alive again.

Ron, sipping his coffee, asked Musk, somewhat puzzled by his appearance today:

"Logically speaking, even if the price really falls below the offering price, there shouldn't be this much anxiety, right? Or were you just pretending to be calm when you rang the bell?"

Ron may not know Musk very well, but someone who has come this far must have some resilience.

Moreover, it is perfectly normal for newly listed companies to fall below their offering price in the US stock market.

"You noticed?" Musk picked up a cigarette from the table, lit it, took a deep drag, and said in a muffled voice, "I'm almost out of money."

"What? You didn't come here to borrow money from me, did you?" Ron shifted his position, moving away from the guy.

That bastard! We've only met a few times, and he's already asking to borrow money.

My money didn't come from thin air.

Upon seeing this, Musk smiled wryly and said, "What I mean is that Tesla won't last more than a few months. I don't know if it can hold out until the Department of Energy approves the loan."

"So, you still want to borrow money from me?" Ron felt that opening the door and letting this guy in was a mistake.

Musk said with a resentful look, "If I really wanted to borrow from you, you..."

"I have no money," Ron interrupted directly. "I just threw five hundred million dollars into the financial market a couple of days ago, and now I only have one or two hundred million dollars left for working capital."

Upon hearing this, Musk felt as if a sharp blade had pierced his chest.

Those envious looks could kill.

He worked himself to the bone to secure over 200 million dollars in funding for Tesla.

It turns out that 200 million was just pocket money for them.

Everyone says you can make money in the financial world, and Musk truly experienced that firsthand with Ron.

At their first meeting, his net worth was only $1 million.

Musk didn't take it seriously at the time.

Unexpectedly, just one month later, he had enough money to buy the company he had worked so hard for over five years.

Enough with the small talk, let's get down to business.

Musk meant that Ron helped him stabilize the market, and the money spent was directly deducted from his $4000 million hedge fund.

Alternatively, you could write a transfer agreement and directly transfer all of your shares to Ron.

With this $40 million, plus the more than $30 million over-allotment from the underwriters, it would be enough to stabilize Tesla's stock price at the offering price.

The stock market is stable, and the Department of Energy's loans are also generally not a problem.

Ron couldn't help but laugh after hearing this:

"Are you sure you want to transfer this to me? Don't you want to hear my advice?"