The American Kill Line: I Can Predict the Future

The financial market is all about momentum.

If you have power, leverage it; if you don't, create it.

Soros is very good at this; he creates hype for himself almost every time he makes a move.

Back on the 5th, the old guy said something like, "The Eurozone may be trapped in a deflationary vortex, and the euro's rally may be short-lived."

He quietly built up a long position.

Two days later, with the Fed's QE2 expectations locked in, the old man changed his tune, saying that "the euro will be able to maintain its current price level because European authorities have set up an aid mechanism."

He said everything, good and bad, and made money.

The key bullish trend for the euro has begun.

The old man has been reducing his gold long positions since June, and Ron doesn't intend to gamble with him in the gold market.

More importantly, the main bullish force in gold was John Paulson.

At the end of September, it held 31.5 million shares of SPDR Gold Trust, worth approximately US$45 billion.

The daily trading volume of gold futures is only $250 billion.

In comparison, the daily turnover of the euro futures market exceeds $550 billion, while the turnover of the euro spot market reaches as high as $1.2 trillion.

Therefore, Ron only allocated $50 billion in notional funds to short gold futures.

Of the remaining $750 billion in notional cash, $100 billion was used to short euro futures and $650 billion to short euro spot.

"Sir, Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan Chase have inquired whether we should establish a position now?"

"No rush, tell them to wait a little longer."

The timing wasn't right; Ron didn't find a suitable opportunity to enter the fray.

Both the euro and gold are currently experiencing slight fluctuations.

Follow-up funds have not yet entered the market.

Establishing a position at this time would be too obvious and would easily attract the attention of bulls.

Most importantly, this opportunity is extremely rare.

On October 19, the People's Bank of China announced an interest rate hike.

Ron was not about to let such a rare "black swan event" slip by easily.

One Soros is not enough to satisfy his appetite.

Since Ron rose to power, countless people have been saying strange things about him.

Soros is at best a well-known figure.

But that's about it.

If he didn't even have this much tolerance, he would have been starting wars all over the world long ago.

Choosing to retaliate at this moment is merely using this as an excuse to get involved in the situation.

He had a vague idea of ​​who the mastermind behind the "framing" of him was.

This is a good opportunity to double-check.

He refused to believe that the other party could resist such a good opportunity.

Once they're on the field, just close the door and unleash the hounds, suffocating them all.

Of course, Ron was also worried about getting caught out and being swept away.

That's why they used $20 billion of principal a week in advance, leveraging it up to 20 times, and used $400 billion of nominal gold to follow suit and go long on the euro and gold.

For several days in a row, there were no signs of major market fluctuations.

This has led global financial institutions to wonder if the two are just talking big.

Both bulls and bears are ready with their ammunition.

They weren't the main force, but they were definitely a qualified corpse-collecting team.

As soon as these two start fighting, we'll press forward.

At this point, Soros also had doubts:

"What a patient little guy."

Despite his seemingly disdainful tone, he had secretly analyzed past transaction records countless times.

People can lie, but numbers can't be faked.

In Soros's analysis, Ron is like a "ghost," lurking in the darkest places, reaping the market bit by bit.

The key is that this "ghost" is very patient; no matter how you try to tempt it, it's difficult to make it reveal its true form.

If it weren't for the incredibly generous offer from Blackstone, Soros would have preferred to ally with Ron.

Such talent is extremely rare, a once-in-a-century occurrence.

If you bring your own chariot along, it will definitely be an ace in the hole.

It's still the kind of trump card that decides the outcome.

But what if it's the opponent...

Just then, the encrypted phone rang.

Soros thought for a moment and then pressed the answer button.

"Why isn't that little mouse moving? George, why don't you try again..."

"Hill," Soros interrupted in a deep voice, "remember who you are, and that our cooperation is only temporary."

Soros has his pride; he can agree to a temporary alliance with Blackstone Group for the sake of profit.

However, this does not mean that a mere president of Blackstone Group's hedge department can command him.

Tomlinson Hill, president of Blackstone's off-line division, remained silent for a long time on the other end of the phone before finally speaking in a low voice:

"I hope you won't forget our promise."

Tomlinson hung up the phone, his face terribly grim.

The major turning point in Ron's rise was the European debt crisis.

They had been planning for months, but when they finally reaped the rewards, a little mouse stole a piece of their cake.

From that time on, Tomlinson kept a close eye on the little mouse.

Unfortunately, this little mouse hid itself too well.

He never showed himself, and he was not fooled by several attempts to lure him.

They could only watch helplessly as their opponent grew rapidly, to the point that even Tomlinson was wary of them.

Fortunately, this little mouse remained arrogant.

Although his boss Stephen Schwarzman's instructions were to teach him a lesson, Tomlinson didn't want to miss such a good opportunity.

After much deliberation, Tomlinson said to his deputy:

"The QE2 minutes are due the day after tomorrow, John. I don't want to wait any longer. I'll enter the market tomorrow. I want the euro to break through 1.4000 tomorrow."

John P. McCormick, Senior Investment Director at Blackstone BAAM, is responsible for portfolio management and strategy execution, and is also Tomlinson's deputy.

He thought about it for a moment and then nodded in agreement.

QE2 quantitative easing is almost a done deal, with the Federal Reserve going to "print money" to combat the "risk of deflation".

The US dollar index is bound to fall sharply, and the surge in the euro and gold is an irreversible trend.

The reason for the recent fluctuations is simply that the bulls are taking a wait-and-see approach.

Although entering the market tomorrow is a bit early, it can still ignite the market in advance and get those bulls to follow suit.

This is an open strategy; as long as the opponent isn't a fool, they'll definitely follow suit.

When the minutes are released, the bulls will inevitably increase their investment.

Ron, unless he's an idiot, will definitely follow suit.

When the market corrects, Blackstone, together with Soros and others, will take advantage of the market pullback to violently dump shares, causing panic and wiping out all the bulls in one fell swoop.

the next day.

A large number of long orders have entered the euro and gold markets.

With the QE2 minutes due tomorrow, global bulls are eager to get started.

In just half a day, the euro successfully broke through the 1.4000 mark.

Gold also surged to $1355.

"The opportunity to enter the market has arrived."

Seeing this, Ron, who was standing alone in the control room, spoke into the microphone:

"Victor."

"Sir." Victor knew his boss was about to take action.

"If gold doesn't move, first sell off 30% of your short euro futures positions."

"Does a dark pool setup need to be used?"

"No need, just use the iceberg algorithm to break it all down into smaller orders and take it slow. We have plenty of time to test the strength of the main players above."

The following day, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes transformed the "second round of quantitative easing" from a market rumor into a confirmed official announcement of action.

In an instant, gold and the euro surged again.

The bulls across the market erupted on this day.

Gold surged to $1370.5, a record high.

The euro touched the 1.4100 level.

The following day, with the positive news fully priced in, both gold and the euro rose slightly.

But the critical point has not yet been reached.

"wrong!"

At this point, someone realized what was happening.

"Who is it? Who is shorting the market against the trend?"

Soros was also taken aback and fell into deep thought.

According to his prediction, the euro will definitely break through 1.4150 today, and may even reach 1.4170.

But right now, it's been hovering around 1.4150.

It's obvious that someone is shorting the market, putting pressure on this critical point.

The encrypted phone rang again.

Tomlinson exclaimed excitedly, "George, I can feel it, it's that little mouse, it's definitely him!"

"Wait a little longer." Soros sensed something was wrong.

"You're right, George, we can't scare the little mouse away now."

Tomlinson took a deep breath, but still couldn't contain his excitement. He laughed triumphantly:

"I thought this little mouse would follow the trend and short sell, but I didn't expect him to go against the trend. Since that's the case, then don't blame us for being ruthless."

The original plan was to dump the shares at a high price and suffocate the little mouse.

Although the cost is high and the benefits are limited, it's worth it to be able to vent your anger and make the other party suffer a big setback.

I never expected this little mouse to be so foolish as to short the market against the trend.

Who does he think he is?

God?

Since that's the case, Tomlinson won't hold back.

Unless a black swan event occurs, even God couldn't save this little mouse.