Wandering the world of film and television begins with the golden years

Professor Wang Guojun, Department of Architecture, Shanghai University, and doctoral supervisor

He's sitting in his office, drinking tea. ♚♞ 🐻💝

He was holding the paper that Li Haoyu had presented.

The paper is not long, less than 10,000 words.

Professor Wang was dumbfounded.

The paper is titled: "The Internet Winter Is Coming".

Can you even write this? Would you dare to write it?

Professor Wang found it odd. Why was it described as "winter is coming"? And why did he specifically point out the significance of the internet industry? Wasn't this contradicting the mainstream media?

There are quite a few people who are pessimistic about the Internet. Although it is not a mainstream view, it still has its supporters. But you directly pronounced the Internet dead and declared it the Internet winter. This judgment is really too bold.

It doesn't matter what opinions a student writes; after all, experts and scholars won't lower themselves to argue with a college student. But Professor Wang is different. He's a renowned professor; can he irresponsibly express his views?

He originally wanted to see what other good things this rascal was hiding inside.

Unexpectedly, he was given such a hot potato.

Wang Guojun suddenly felt like he was in a bind.

He then realized why he had run away immediately after submitting his paper. He knew perfectly well what he had written in it.

In fact, Li Haoyu's choice of this thesis topic was unintentional. 🍪😝 ➅➈ⓈĤ𝕌ⓧ.¢𝐨𝔪 ☮♜

Li Haoyu has nearly ten years of experience in educational institutions.

Because of his job, he frequently reads various industry reports from different media outlets. But despite reading them, he didn't learn much else.

He only realized one thing: the report had to be presented on a grander scale.

Regardless of the actual situation in the industry:

The report must have a grand vision, starting with a national perspective, extending to the world, and even reaching the universe.

The title must also be imaginative; it has to be either heaven or hell. It must grab everyone's attention from the very first title. Thus, we have the sensational title of the paper: "The Internet Winter Is Coming."

It's important to understand that the internet is currently in a phase of creating internet celebrities, and there are countless stories of internet wealth.

Each story, each PowerPoint presentation, each concept, each idea—if developed successfully, can become a unicorn. Once listed on the stock market, it instantly brings financial freedom and a skyrocketing net worth. Many internet companies are valued at tens or even hundreds of times their initial value.

The hot money in this society is either in real estate or on the internet.

The development of the global internet industry has been too rapid and too big of a leap.

According to the data he collected online:

There are approximately 500 publicly listed companies related to the internet. More than 100 of these companies saw their stock prices double on their first day of trading.

Some companies even changed their names to include internet-related information just to capitalize on the trend, without actually having any internet business. After the name change, these companies' stock prices increased by an average of 110%.

This was undoubtedly a crazy era.

Driven by this get-rich-quick mentality, investors gradually lost their rationality, believing that as long as it was an internet company, they could just invest directly, since the price would definitely go up anyway.

Entrepreneurs, seeing this, became even more frenzied. They figured that as long as they put on the label of an internet company, success was guaranteed, so they just went for it. Investors stared at these entrepreneurs, as if to say: "Starting a business? The kind that goes public on NASDAQ?"

This game of musical chairs, fueled by investors and entrepreneurs, gradually reached its climax. However, a harsh winter for the internet was quietly brewing behind the scenes.

In his paper, he proposed that an internet winter was coming, and that 90% of internet companies would collapse in this crisis.

But the surviving companies will quietly absorb nutrients, waiting for the spring of the Internet to arrive, and then make a name for themselves once again.

……

Wang Guojun sat in his office chair.

He read the paper over and over again.

He was torn about whether to publish it, so he decided to call the person involved in the matter over for further questioning. Therefore, Li Haoyu rushed over from Jiang Nansun's place.

Professor Wang gave him a firm order to come immediately.

He had noticed that Jiang Nansun's attitude had softened recently, but unexpectedly, Professor Wang had held him back at this crucial moment. However, if he were working at a university in Shanghai, he really couldn't refuse to give him this face.

Li Haoyu entered Professor Wang's office.

Professor Wang simply nodded when he saw him, then pushed the paper in his hand to Li Haoyu, saying, "Explain yourself. This paper of yours really gave me a fright."

Li Haoyu said with a smile, "Teacher, don't be modest. You've seen all kinds of storms, how could you be scared by a paper?"

Wang Guojun shook his head helplessly.

Li Haoyu was considered his last disciple. Not only was he capable, but he also understood human relationships. Wang Guojun liked this student very much.

Li Haoyu smiled, refilled his teacup, and said, "Is there anything you need me to answer, teacher?"

Wang Guojun, who was resting with his eyes closed, said, "Tell me why you're so certain that the internet bubble is about to burst."

Li Haoyu thought for a moment and then spoke.

I have identified three reasons for the internet bubble:

First, there is a decline in internet technology and product innovation capabilities. Only by continuously improving and refining products can they remain youthful and vibrant.

However, current internet companies are content to rely on their existing strengths and have not undertaken subsequent technological innovations, making it difficult for them to maintain their market dominance.

The second issue is the excessive pursuit of venture capital: many companies with only a "seed" technology or an initial idea are frantically pursued by capital.

They are all in their initial stages and have not yet been tested by the market. Whether they can be transformed into real productivity is highly uncertain. Under such circumstances, a complete collapse is to be expected.

The third and most important point is that many internet companies have not found their own profit model.

No matter how fancy the concepts of B2B, B2C, P2P, or the internet may be, ultimately investors need to see a viable way to make money. Otherwise, even the best concepts are worthless to investors.

The internet economy went from being wildly popular to its demise.

The shift between the two can happen in the blink of an eye.

Capital has lost patience with the false prosperity of the internet. What may follow is capital revealing its true colors, and only those that generate profits will continue to attract capital.

Therefore, I conclude that an internet winter is coming.

However, crisis can also be an opportunity. As the internet industry undergoes a shake-up, the original competitors in the market are dying one after another, and new internet giants will take this opportunity to emerge.

Li Haoyu then added the final, crucial question.

How many internet companies still have sufficient cash flow to cope with this crisis?

The current prosperity is merely a false one. Once stock prices decline, market funds will shrink, and the financing market will cool down, creating a cascading effect.

These companies will no longer be able to raise funds smoothly and will eventually face bankruptcy reorganization as internet companies.

This led to a major reshuffle of the entire internet industry.