Tokyo, 1991: Starting as a bank clerk

Chapter 166 "On Asset Price Trends After a Bubble Bursts" [Fourth Update, Requesting Monthly Tickets]

What is the profit-sharing ratio?

Kiryu also asked.

"The secretariat takes 30%, and you get 70%."

Kiryu Yaya did a quick mental calculation.

If he sets the reading points for an article to 10P, which is 10 yen, then for every paid reader, he can earn 7P, which is equivalent to 7 yen.

If ten people watch it, that's 70 yen.

If 100 people watch it, that's 7 million yen.

Of course, it's impossible for that many members to be interested in his articles.

However, as long as a small percentage of people are willing to pay, the revenue can be quite substantial.

Kiryu Yaya patted himself down and then said to the waiter, "Excuse me, could you please give me some paper and a pen?"

The waiter paused for a moment, then elegantly reminded him, "Sir, you can take the manuscript paper and application form back with you."

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Kiryu Yaya smiled and said, "Soon."

The woman behind the service desk maintained a professional smile, took out a stack of snow-white manuscript paper and a black ballpoint pen from the drawer, and gently pushed them in front of Kiryu Yaya.

"Sir, here's some paper and a pen. Please feel free to call me if you need anything else."

Kiryu Yaya nodded and returned to his seat with the manuscript.

He had just sat down when he heard low voices coming from the service desk.

Although the voice was spoken very softly, Kiryu Yaya's ears still picked up a few key words.

The customer just now said he wanted to write a paper on the spot for submission.

It was the voice of the waiter who had brought him the manuscript paper earlier.

"Write it on the spot?"

The girl on duty spoke even softer, with a hint of nonchalance: "The articles published by these members of the Dongzheng Association are all the result of research over half a month or even several months. How could anyone possibly read a paper written on the spot?"

Kiryu Yaya turned his head slightly, glancing at the service counter out of the corner of his eye.

The woman on duty who spoke had a rather full chest, which stretched her white business suit shirt into a noticeable curve.

The first waiter lowered his voice and said, "He looks very young; he must be a newcomer."

"No wonder."

Kiryu Yaya withdrew his gaze, a slight smile curving his lips.

He wasn't angry when he heard this conversation.

In fact, he didn't know if anyone would read the article, but he just wrote it anyway.

He spread out the manuscript paper, unscrewed the pen cap, and wrote the title at the top of the first page.

Some Observations on the Current Economic Situation—Also Discussing Asset Price Trends After the Bubble Burst

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Category: Macroeconomic Forecast Summary:

This report, through a comparative analysis of the US savings and loan crisis and Japan's past economic cycles, points out that Japan's current economic adjustment is far from over.

The exposure of land prices, stock prices, and non-performing loans all exhibit significant lags, and the market's consensus on a "bottoming out and rebound" may be overly optimistic.

The following phenomena will occur in the next six to twelve months:

1. Commercial land prices in the Tokyo and Osaka metropolitan areas are falling rapidly, and the decline may be more than double what the market expected;

Second, non-performing loans secured by real estate will be exposed in a concentrated manner, and small and medium-sized financial institutions will face severe operational pressure.

Third, highly leveraged companies that relied excessively on asset appreciation in the early stages will experience a chain reaction of broken capital chains, leading to a wave of defaults.

Kiryu Yaya had given this topic considerable thought.

To make a splash on an elite platform like the East China International Fair, a gimmick is essential.

What topic could attract more attention than the prediction of the Great Falls?

Of course, this topic is not without its drawbacks.

Kuroda's place is a risk point.

After all, he just helped someone acquire such a large piece of land in Rokko, and now he's talking down land prices, which will inevitably affect their relationship.

But it's just an impact.

After all, the future direction of the economy is determined by general trends rather than by any individual.

Could it be that Kuroda knew he was a time traveler?

As for the day the prophecy comes true, there's no need to pay attention to Kuroda's thoughts; he'll have been blown to smithereens by Rokko.

Perhaps he still feels guilty towards himself, believing that this paper was a warning to him, but Kuroda stubbornly persisted in his stance.

Kiryu Yaya wrote this paper with exceptional ease.

In the first paragraph, he begins with the American savings and loan crisis.

In the mid-to-late 1980s, thousands of savings and loan institutions in the United States collapsed due to bad mortgage loans, and regulators ultimately paid more than $160 billion in bailout costs.

The process involved asset prices falling first, followed by institutional bankruptcies, and finally a full-blown systemic crisis.

Japan is currently in the window between "falling asset prices" and "institutional bankruptcies," and most people mistakenly believe that this window is the end.

In the second paragraph, he turned his attention back to Japan.

He used a simple comparison:

Over the past five years, commercial land prices in Tokyo have tripled, and in Osaka they have increased two and a half times.

Even if prices fall by 30% from their peak, they are still far higher than at the beginning of the bubble.

However, market expectations do not work this way. People only remember the price they "once owned" without caring whether that price was reasonable.

When a downtrend becomes a trend, panic can be self-reinforcing.

Here he cites phenomena he observed from cases such as Fuji Metals and Higashi-Osaka Seiko:

Small and medium-sized business owners generally have the mentality of "just hang in there a little longer," and no one is willing to be the first to admit defeat.

The problem is that when everyone chooses to hold on a little longer, the market clearing process will be artificially delayed, and the cost of this delay is a more severe collapse.

In the third paragraph, he begins to list specific prophecies.

Industrial land prices in the Osaka metropolitan area will accelerate their decline in the second half of the year, with a cumulative drop potentially reaching 40% by the end of the year.

The scale of non-performing loans disclosed by major city banks will surge in the second half of the year, and many local banks will face a capital adequacy crisis.

The construction, real estate, and golf-related industries, which previously obtained substantial financing through real estate mortgages, will experience concentrated debt defaults.

In the fourth paragraph, he made an even bolder deduction.

The wave of business closures will spread from small and medium-sized manufacturing industries to medium and large-scale construction and real estate industries, ultimately leading to a structural deterioration in the job market.

The unemployment rate will gradually climb from its current level of around 2 percent, and may exceed 3 percent by the middle of next year.

This number was almost unimaginable in Japan at the time, but Kiryu Yaya knew that this was just the beginning.

Just in case, he didn't make any absolute statements.

At the end of the article, he added a disclaimer:

The above analysis is based on publicly available data and historical cycle comparisons and is for reference only. Market uncertainties exist, and this report does not constitute any investment advice.

Kiryu Yaya put down his pen and read it from beginning to end.

It took two hours to write a 3,000-word piece.

He twisted his neck and wrists, somewhat nostalgic for the future era of working with laptops, at least it wouldn't be so hard on his joints.

Kiryu Yaya tidied up the manuscript paper and handed it, along with the application form, to the woman behind the service desk.

The woman took it and put the application form and draft paper into a black folder.

She put a label on the cover and wrote the number and date on it with a ballpoint pen.

You will be notified of the review results within two business days. If the review is successful, the article will be available on the knowledge base. At that time, you can check the number of views and points earned through your membership card.

Thank you.

Kiryu Yaya stood up, straightened the hem of his suit jacket, and turned to walk towards the exit.

After passing through that cold and secluded corridor, he finally returned to the quiet private room of the Dongdu Pavilion.

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