Falling into the Cretaceous

Shen Ye nodded.

"Besides these Deinosuchus, there will be a large number of pterosaurs. Most of the pterosaurs will not pose a danger to us, only the Quetzalcoatlus is a threat to us."

Hearing Shen Ye say this, everyone started to have second thoughts.

Even a burly man like Jack trembled his thick lips and said, "Brother Ye, why don't we just forget about it? We can find a small stream; we don't necessarily have to look for a big river or lake."

The others remained silent. They knew very well that Shen Ye wouldn't take them on a risky trip if he could, since he was among them.

"Jack, it's not that I want to take risks, it's just that streams aren't so easy to find. We have to eliminate them one by one in each valley, and valleys are places with many dangers. It's not as simple as we imagine."

Shen Ye shook his head and said.

If he could avoid going, Shen Ye would definitely be the first to turn around and leave.

Finding Xiaoxi Chun Chun was all about luck.

Because there was no bamboo in this era, there might be palm trees along streams, but also along swamps. So, you can't really determine whether there is a stream in a certain place just by looking at the plants.

You can't tell just by looking at the terrain, because the surrounding mountains aren't very undulating and there are many valleys. It mainly depends on whether the geology can hold back the surface water flow.

As an archaeology PhD, Shen Ye knows some geology, but that still requires on-site investigation. What's the point of investigating when you get close to the site? You can tell at a glance whether there's a stream or not.

"That's better than going to the river or lake shore, isn't it?"

Jack still felt it was too dangerous to fetch water from the river or lake!

Shen Ye was too afraid to go to the riverbank, after all, the scene from just now was still vivid in his mind.

"Is that what you think too?"

Shen Ye asked.

Everyone was silent for a moment before Cui Zhengxi spoke first.

"I'll do as you say, if you say we'll go, then we'll go."

Zhou Jian had absolutely no knowledge in this area, so he couldn't make a decision.

Shen Ye knew, of course, that it was meaningless and irresponsible to let people who didn't know anything about this vote.

The moment he asked that question, he had already begun to doubt his own abilities.

Whether or not they can actually shoulder this responsibility.

He didn't think he could bear the serious consequences if things went wrong on the banks of rivers and lakes.

"Brother Ye, we believe in you. You make the decision. At worst, you can just be reincarnated!"

Zhou Jian could tell that Shen Ye was burdened by the death of his manager.

"Brother Ye, it's your decision."

Jack changed his attitude at this point. After all, Shen Ye had saved everyone many times with his knowledge, and he shouldn't undermine his confidence.

No one is born a leader.

Besides, this leader was elected by everyone, not something Shen Ye wanted to be.

He should be given some room to make mistakes.

Besides, Shen Ye can't be blamed for the agent's death at all.

If there's anything to blame, it's his own fault for not knowing how to climb trees and for not believing Shen Ye's words. Didn't Mike survive because he listened to him?

The two engineers, the reporter, and the photographer all nodded, offering no further comment.

Shen Ye closed his eyes, his mind filled with the horrific scene of his manager's death, and occasionally flashed back to Ah K's death. His will and mentality were not made of iron.

He was really devastated.

I really want to unload the burden on my shoulders and then hide away to vent my emotions.

But he couldn't do that.

Shen Ye tried his best to control his emotions.

After a long while, he opened his eyes and looked at the unfamiliar, primeval forest and the demon-like creatures.

He once again let reason prevail over his emotions.

"I need someone to help me analyze this. Going to find the stream would mean being exposed to the wild for too long, greatly increasing the probability of encountering extreme dangers along the way, and there's even the possibility of not finding the stream at all..."

Shen Ye paused, then said,

"If you search for rivers and lakes, the probability of finding one is 100%, but the probability of encountering danger is also extremely high; the risk and reward are directly proportional..."

Shen Ye pinched the bridge of his nose.

"However, the purpose of finding water is to solve long-term survival problems, so whether it is finding a stream or a river or lake, the back-and-forth transport of water will always involve the same risks."

Shen Ye voiced his concerns.

After careful consideration, everyone realized that this was an extremely difficult decision.

If you're lucky, you might find a stream nearby, which is great. But what if it's far away?

The long journeys back and forth through the forest to transport water also increased the mortality rate.

Rivers and lakes may be dangerous, but they are closer to the shore!

If a fixed and safe water source can be found, many risks can be reduced in the future.

One of the young engineers raised his hand.

"I have a mathematical method, but I don't know if it will work."

"Hey! At this point, just say you have a solution!"

Mike asked anxiously, and the young engineer then spoke up: "Actually, this problem can be calculated mathematically using the expected value formula, which is that the average profit or loss equals the winning multiple multiplied by the probability of winning minus the probability of losing. If it equals zero, it's a fair game; if it equals a positive number, you can do it blindly; if it's a negative number, don't do it."

"Please speak like a human being!" Zhou Jian said helplessly.

Shen Ye pinched the bridge of his nose again and looked at the young engineer.

"Tell me more about it."

The young engineer nodded.

"Average profit and loss can be seen as the team's long-term success rate. The winning multiplier can be seen as the percentage of the team that can retrieve water without any damage. The probability of winning is the probability of successfully retrieving water, and the probability of losing can be seen as the probability of the entire team being wiped out."

The engineer began calculating as he spoke.

"The success rate of finding water in rivers and lakes is 100%, the success rate of all members obtaining water without loss is 90%, and the probability of all members dying is considered to be 50%. So the answer is 0.4."

"Wait, why is the 90% value for water extraction without loss for all personnel?" another senior engineer asked, puzzled.

"Brother Liu, it's very simple. As long as everyone is alive, there are nine people, and each person has a 10% survival rate. As long as one person survives, the goal of getting water is achieved, so it's 90%. However, if everyone dies, we can't take 100%, because that would be certain death. And the mortality rate for each person is 50%, so we can only take 50%."

When the young engineer said this, the older engineer suddenly understood.

The crowd didn't really understand what they were hearing.

However, that's not important. What's important is knowing which method is feasible.

"What is the numerical value for finding the stream?"

Cui Zhengxi then asked.

"The success rate of finding a stream is 50%, but if the search time is extended, the success rate can be increased to 90%, not 100% because if the search time is too long, our mortality rate will not be 50% and will also increase. The calculation results are definitely not as good as going to rivers and lakes."

The young engineer said.

Shen Ye fell silent at this point. The reality was that "quantum mechanics" was full of uncertainties, while mathematical formulas were definite and represented the optimal solution.

"Brother Ye, you make the decision!"

The young engineer looked at Shen Ye and said.

"There's another compromise!"

Shen Ye gritted his teeth and said.