Start 1861: I just inherited the Dutch throne

Chapter 707: Sigh from Bismarck during Washington’s visit
The Dutch general election has become the focus of world attention.

Even Prime Minister Bismarck of the German Empire, who was visiting Washington, D.C., of the American Commonwealth, had to discuss the topic with President Stephen Douglas in the White House.

American President Stephen Douglas said cautiously:

"The current general election in the Netherlands has formed a multi-corner electoral battle in many constituencies, but according to current observations, there is no guarantee abandonment effect in the general election and strategic voting will not occur."

Bismarck said solemnly: "This Dutch election is a total release of political energy from all parties in various countries, and it is also a backlash against the past 16 years of Liberal Party rule. The Liberal Party wants to defend its position and retain its territory in South Australia and Wilhelm Province (Victoria) ), Western Australia, Queensland.

The Christian Party is Northern Australia, New South Wales, the City of Melbourne, and Peep Queensland.

The Socialist Party, on the other hand, is firmly holding on to Tasmania and New Zealand, and is watching with enthusiasm in Western Australia and William Province (Victoria). Each party has its own plans and enters the field at the same time, forming a triangular battle in many constituencies. "

Stephen Douglas nodded and said: "Yes, if you include the Labor Party and other small parties and independents, there will be even four or five parties competing. However, according to current observations, there will be a bail-abandonment effect in the Dutch election. , strategic voting will definitely occur.”

Bismarck laughed: "The nominations for the Dutch 1878 general election will soon be clear, and the alliance lines of the political parties have completed the nomination and delegation of the constituencies. Since the opposition camp and the ruling party camp cannot reach any compromise with each other, the Liberal Party will fight alone. Therefore, this general election excludes the possibility of a one-on-one showdown. I even think that there will be a large-scale integration of non-Liberal parties other than the ruling Liberal Party.

Other parties such as the Christian Party and the Socialist Party will therefore attract other small parties and independents to join their camp.

However, from the current perspective, the coalition formed by the Christian Party and the Socialist Party is the general trend.

Looking at Western Australia, William Province and Queensland Province, we can see that the two parties have completed the integration and are ready to go all out. If they abandon their own people and trade in exchange for the support of the other party, it will be the first time this term The theme of the Dutch election”

"Your Excellency Bismarck is right."

Stephen Douglas agreed: “In countries where electoral mobilization is becoming more and more mature, when multiple candidates appear in a single constituency, the bailout effect will sometimes occur. When multiple people from the same faction run for election, the votes will be dispersed. In order to To avoid candidates from political parties who disagree with their own ideas being elected, electors may think strategically when voting.”

Bismarck said: "In this regard, the Federal Republic of America seems to be the most fierce. President, your Democratic Party and its opponent, the Republican Party, have been 'fighting for more than 50 years' (formerly called the Democratic-Republican Party, and the opponent After the Federalist Party founded by Hamilton was defeated, the former split into the current Democratic and Republican parties). It can be said that your party has rich experience in this."

Stephen Douglas did not refute it. In fact, it seems that the two parties have become the opposition for the sake of opposition. He said: "In practical terms, in order to prevent the party they hate the most from being elected, they would rather vote when voting. Give up the party you admire most and vote for a candidate you hate less, in order to prevent the party you hate the most from being elected. This kind of voting behavior is called the abandonment effect here, giving up one party in order to protect the other party."

Stephen Douglas is right.Bismarck naturally knew many electoral tricks.In election research, the abandonment effect is actually strategic voting.

Voters usually hope that the vote in their hands can play its due value, but if the party they support does not get many votes and cannot win the election, then it is better to give their votes to another candidate with similar ideas but a higher chance of winning. Use this strategy to avoid the most repulsive candidates from passing by and make your votes count.

Especially in the competition in a constituency, if there are more than three candidates forming a multi-cornered battle, and the strength of each other is about the same, there may be a bailout action.

In the 1854 London mayoral election, there was a famous bail abandonment time.

In the mayoral election of Amsterdam, the former capital of the Netherlands, in 1834, in order to prevent the strong candidate of the Liberal Party who had moved to Amsterdam from being elected, the voters of the local city of Amsterdam who were leaning towards the Liberal Party gave up their support for another local resident of the Liberal Party who had a weaker voice. He supported another local-born candidate within the Christian Party, thus becoming a model of the abandonment effect in Europe.

If three people got votes that year, there would be a constant back and forth.If bail abandonment had not occurred, the final outcome might have been different.

In the 1878 mayoral election of Melbourne, the new capital of the Netherlands, voters may also use strategic voting.

Both Bismarck and Stephen were familiar with Dutch elections.

Bismarck wisely said: "This Dutch election has touched the attention of various countries around the world. Different polls show that the current support of the Liberal Party is less than 40%, the Christian Party and the Socialist Party account for 36% and 24% respectively, and the remaining small parties may have no support. There is only sporadic support for the party. Due to the multi-corner melee and the scattered votes, it is expected that no single camp will be able to win a majority alone. Generally speaking, the Dutch general election votes have high doubts about the Liberal Party and do not want to see them win. Liberal Party supporters are not optimistic about the Christian Party. It is not favorable, and the Christian Party is back in power. Despite differences in preferences, intimidation will not have the effect of abandoning bail in many wars. What is the reason?"

Under the questioning gaze of Stephen Douglas, he analyzed: "The Netherlands is a multi-ethnic society. Although white Dutch-Germans account for more than 68%, for example, other Nordic Germans in Sweden and Denmark account for 2000% of the 15 million people in the Netherlands. %, the remaining European immigrants reached 8%, Latinos 5%, and the remaining 4% were mixed-race whites.”

“Faced with such a racially diverse Netherlands where whites alone are the only ones, although indigenous people and black people are also members of the election, in the Netherlands, if you want to vote, you must first pay 100 Dutch guilders, or 4 pounds. The per capita income of the Netherlands last year was 200 The pound sterling is the largest in the world, but blacks and indigenous people are at the bottom of Dutch society. A survey found that for these two groups, the per capita income of blacks is only one-eighth of that of whites, with an annual income of 40 pounds, that is, blacks -Both people and natives have been evened out.

4 pounds, which is basically asking black people to give one-tenth of their income of 40 pounds to the campaign organization.No one thinks black people and indigenous people are giving away half their income to vote.”

Stephen Douglas nodded and said: "The indigenous and black population is about 1800 million, of which adult votes account for two-thirds, that is, 1200 million. However, if 4 pounds is used as a vote fund as a condition, hey, almost blacks and Of the 1200 million votes of the indigenous people who can actually vote, very few participated in the voting. I estimate that it can be one in 10, no, one in 50 is not bad."

Bismarck did not refute, but just sighed: "With 24 votes, white people have more than 1500 million votes. After calculation, while the Netherlands has won a reputation, it has greatly suppressed the power and power of those two races. Voice. This hand alone shows the skill of William IV."

(End of this chapter)