Coquettish Rebirth

()"In summary, the author predicts that in 1997, Soros will strongly snipe the Thai baht, which may lead to an economic crisis in Thailand, and the total economic volume of Thailand is not enough to satisfy Soros who sniped the British pound. Therefore, there are reasons It can be believed that Soros will gradually attack emerging countries in Southeast Asia one by one, and even the four Asian tigers will not be able to escape..." Boss Zhu held this article written by Jia Hongjian in his hand, and his hands trembled when he read it!

At this time, he sincerely prayed like the gods and Buddhas in the sky, that the things Jia Hongjian predicted should not come!Even if he is an atheist, at this time he really wants to pray like the gods and Buddhas in the sky.Of course he understood what Jia Hongjian said would happen if the economic crisis in Southeast Asia happened!At this time, according to his previous statistics for that meeting, by the end of 1996, 60% of China's exports were exported to East Asia and Southeast Asia, especially Southeast Asia!At the same time, foreign capital is mainly in Southeast Asia, and Hong Kong capital alone accounts for 50%!In addition, there are Taiwanese capital!These two alone account for a huge proportion.If a financial crisis breaks out in Southeast Asia, neither of these two sides will be able to survive without the cover of the mainland, and the mainland will definitely cover Hong Kong and Hong Kong, but it is impossible to cover it in all directions. It is just a guarantee that the Hong Kong dollar will not depreciate. As for whether the Hong Kong stock market will fall or not, then he really has no way to guarantee it! ..

If a financial crisis breaks out as Jia Hongjian said, if Hong Kong also suffers serious losses, then the foreign capital obtained by the mainland may be withdrawn in an instant, and export orders will be canceled at the same time!This seems to be nothing, but at the same time, a large number of selling properties were replaced by funds being withdrawn.Even the investments that could have been settled may not be settled, which may lead to a slowdown in the mainland's economy, and at the same time, weak exports will lead to a slowdown in the mainland's economy.

You know, Mr. Zhu has just started to deal with the inflation problem since 93. Before that, the country experienced the blindly overheating of the economy, such as stock speculation, foreign exchange speculation, fundraising, real estate, and development zones. As a result, inflation was serious. , and the predecessor wants to be a good person and do nothing, so he can only be appointed by the chief designer to take charge of the economy.As soon as he came to power in 93, he had to start a deflationary process in an orderly manner.To put it bluntly, it is to cool down the market!

Such a cool down.If the external market is still hot when it is almost successful, it will become a relatively healthy model.But if the external market is directly overcooled, what will this cause?This leads to direct supercooling into deflation.The point where you can't buy anything that is directly cold in the market!

Even according to Jia Hongjian's prediction.At that time, the currencies of the five Southeast Asian countries will depreciate severely.This is an era in which the pressure on China's exports is also very high. Chinese products do not have a large market in Europe and the United States. The combined market share of products from the five Southeast Asian countries is about twice that of China.And China can have such a market.Or because he let the RMB quickly depreciate to 2 results!It is by virtue of the extremely undervalued currency that the share of some exports has been expanded!If the currency values ​​of the five Southeast Asian countries, such as the Thai baht, all drop sharply, will the prices of products from these five Southeast Asian countries, which are mainly exported to the United States, be greatly reduced in US dollars?So will it have huge competitiveness against Chinese products?As a result, Chinese products are not easy to sell in the United States and Europe?

This is not the worst!Where is the most terrible thing?That is, according to the development experience of the Four Tigers and the five countries in Southeast Asia, China has now reached a turning point. According to their experience, when the economy first started to develop rapidly, it was mainly dominated by light chemical industry products dominated by consumer demand. This is the process of China's development in the 5s. It is the process of the slow growth and development of various light industrial products. This process began to bear fruit in the 80s, which brought large quantities of rapidly meeting consumer demand and even stimulating Consumers buy desired products!

When light industrial products blow out in the market, on the other hand, the national economy will enter a stage of heavy industry development dominated by residents' savings and investment needs based on foreign experience.And in our country in the early 90s, various new heavy industries were launched continuously, and the problem of repeated construction that Mr. Zhu mentioned in his speech a few days ago is a sequela after such a large-scale construction of heavy industries!

According to the experience of Japan, the four Asian tigers, and the five countries in Southeast Asia, from this stage, heavy industry will feed back the society, and through various methods, the society will maintain a growth rate of 1020% around 10!Originally, China was almost capable, but due to the constraints of foreign exchange, energy, transportation, raw materials, etc., basically after two years of 10%, it is necessary to tighten up a little to prevent overheating!

In general, after China entered the 90s, basically until the beginning of 97, the average annual GDP growth rate remained at around 11%. It can be said that it is basically still in the stage of heavy industry-led growth.But now the savings rate is growing too fast. In the mid-to-late 80s, the savings rate exceeded 40%. Rising rapidly, this will be a bit stimulating in the end. The country needs to upgrade its industry. The basic meaning is that because there is too much money, a lot of money should be invested in the industry. The industry that has received a lot of money should not continue. To maintain the low-end "processing of supplied materials", you should climb the technology tree and strengthen your own industrial added value!

And such a turning point is prone to problems. For example, if a business like a sweatshop is transformed into a company with a little bit of technology content, can their business owners be willing to upgrade?We must know that China is different from foreign countries. Foreign countries upgrade and purchase machine assembly lines, which can increase labor productivity and increase higher profits, but China is different. Chinese workers can reversely eliminate machine production lines!So for the sake of profit, why do they spend a lot of money to upgrade their technology?

Therefore, such an upgrade itself may lead to a slight turmoil in the social economy. Boss Zhu himself is ready to start reforming the national economy in 97 and 98, and begin to lead the transformation!But what if this time happens to encounter an externally unstable economic crisis?All of a sudden, the social and economic level is too cold, and it has to be upgraded to heavy processing industry... This can easily lead to social unrest!

Now in this country itself, due to the ineffectiveness of state-owned enterprises and years of inflation, the company has suffered serious losses. If the company has suffered serious losses, it will not start work, and let the workers rest at home. Give half your salary.This has gradually formed a certain social hidden danger in some industrial cities such as the Northeast!If there is another economic crisis at this time, it will force Boss Zhu to relentlessly pursue social transformation across the board!But the various repercussions brought about by that are quite serious. Basically, it can be regarded as drinking poison to quench thirst, that is, drinking poison to quench thirst!

Thinking about everything that might happen one after another, Boss Zhu was in a cold sweat!He immediately hung up a phone call to Jia Hongjian.When Jia Hongjian answered the phone, he didn't care about 21, and asked directly, "Hongjian, is the prediction you made reliable?"

"If I don't think it's reliable, I won't send it to you," Jia Hongjian said bluntly at this time, "Besides, this is to remind you in advance, to remind Zhong Yang, so that you can quickly find a way to discuss it. Come up with a plan, don't let things develop in this direction, you will be dumbfounded!"

Although what Jia Hongjian said was quite blunt, Boss Zhu understood the content, that is, he would rather believe what he has than believe what he has not!Indeed, what if something like this happens at this critical time?If it really happened, the Chinese government might really go bankrupt in a year or two. You know, the country has issued a large amount of treasury bills to borrow money to run the country.But if when the external economy is in crisis and the export of external demand is extremely weak, how much tax can the country collect?The central yang has to share this tax with the local government, and then the central yang has to return it to the local government, and is also responsible for infrastructure construction, etc. In the end, the central yang still bears the burden. Now that domestic demand is underdeveloped, the result is a sharp drop in tax revenue and a sharp reduction in national income. The debt has been reduced, but the debt has not been reduced sharply. What should I do when the debt needs to be repaid?Printing a large amount of RMB to pay off debts?If the result is not good enough, there will be another inflation rate of tens of percent per year!Then the domestic economy is basically over!

"Hung-chien, what do you want to do?" Boss Zhu subconsciously asked Jia Hongjian. "Domestic demand! We must expand domestic demand!" Jia Hongjian said.When Boss Zhu heard this, he became worried, "Do you think that other companies can stimulate consumers to buy like your Huaxia Hi-Tech? Now the savings rate of consumers themselves is too high, and the money they earn is not only for eating and drinking, but also for buying your products. Except for the products of Huaxia Hi-Tech, everything else has been saved. How can this expand domestic demand? Unless...you can only choose where they have to spend money, and stimulate them to spend it... No, the sequelae are too serious, and it might not work In the next 20 years, I will wipe the ass of this trick..." After Boss Zhu thought of an idea himself, he immediately vetoed himself.A person who can sit in his position is the same as a person who can take one step and watch nine moves in Go!This thinks of a policy, and you can immediately think of the possible results of this policy! (To be continued.)