Coquettish Rebirth

() Jia Hongjian was urgently summoned by Zhong Yang, and he was picked up in a car with a military license plate early the next morning, and then he was "packed" by a military plane and sent to the capital.During the trip to the capital, Jia Hongjian's military plane could not be a fighter jet, but a cargo plane.However, taking a cargo plane is not like sitting in the cargo hold like a paratrooper as Jia Hongjian imagined before, but sitting on a small "extra seat" behind the cab.This extra seat is a bit like the foldable seat that the stewardesses sit on in civil aviation airliners. It also has seat belts and is generally comfortable. Of course, the economy class seats on civil aviation airliners are not very comfortable.

After being transported to the capital by this plane, Jia Hongjian got into another car and was transported all the way to a garden located west of the Forbidden City, the political center of the Republic.This garden was the former "Royal Garden" of the Forbidden City. In order to allow the emperor to have a place to play, three large pits were dug on the edge of the Forbidden City in the capital, and water was drawn in to form three lakes.These are the so-called North Sea, Central Sea and South China Sea.The "sea" here, like the "doctor" in "bashi" and "tea doctor", all comes from Mongolian.In Mongolian, "sea" means "haizi", which means "waters".The "doctor" in "bashi" and "tea doctor" comes from a Mongolian transliteration similar to the pronunciation of "boxer". ..

The soil excavated from these three lakes was piled to the north of the Forbidden City, so it became Long Live Mountain, also known as Jingshan Mountain.This Jingshan is naturally the place where Emperor Chongzhen hanged himself, and it is next to the love nest of Jia Hongjian and Ye Jing.What about the lake in Beihai?Now it has become Beihai Park, while Zhonghai and Nanhai have become a garden. The scenery inside is very good. In addition to Zhonghai and Nanhai, there are Ziguang Pavilion, Banana Garden, Shuiyun Pavilion in isolated water, Yingtai and other scenic spots.

After entering the political center of the republic, looking at the scenery outside the window, Jia Hongjian had to relax slowly, and the burning mood in his heart even calmed down a lot.Soon, the car arrived at the place, and several staff members came over.He led Jia Hongjian into an office.In this office, several people have already gathered, among them are well-known economists such as Wu Jinglian who Jia Hongjian is familiar with, and there are a few unknown...etc.Why does that person look so much like He Xin?

Jia Hongjian carefully identified it.Who else could this person be if it wasn't He Xin?I saw that He Xin also nodded and greeted himself at this time.Jia Hongjian walked over to He Xin and sat down.Obviously, most of the people present here are middle-aged and elderly people, and most of them are elderly people.Even people like He Xin are almost 50 years old. Jia Hongjian's 20-year-old appearance really attracts the eyes of everyone around him.

Seeing them all staring at him in surprise, Jia Hongjian was not timid, he smiled and nodded to Wu Jinglian and other powerful people he knew and didn't know, which was regarded as a greeting.After those people saw Jia Hongjian nodding, they subconsciously nodded too.Then, Jia Hongjian turned his head and asked He Xin, "You're here too?" Just complained about Jia Hongjian!

Whoops!Is this looking for a fight?But when Jia Hongjian was about to speak, he watched the door open, and several bosses and leaders from this era who could only be seen on TV filed in, including Boss Zhu.After the group of leaders sat down at the table opposite Jia Hongjian and the others, they looked at Boss Zhu and began to speak, "A few days ago, there was a turmoil in Thailand's foreign exchange market. In order to calm down the depreciation of the Thai baht, Jia Hongjian wrote an article for this reason, predicting that in the middle of this year, the foreign exchange turmoil may lead to a series of financial crises in Southeast Asian countries, and may even affect Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, although it may be because of the Chinese renminbi. The reason why you cannot exchange freely will not directly impact the Chinese market, but it will indirectly affect our country, and may even cause social instability in our country... Jia Hongjian's suggestion of this possibility is highly valued, so he was invited here Experts to help you make suggestions, now we ask little friend Jia Hongjian to tell us why you think so.”

After Jia Hongjian wrote the article a few days ago, he was looking for information in various ways, just in case someone would ask him to describe it in detail, so he didn't worry at all if he had dry goods in his hand!At this time, I saw Jia Hongjian standing up with a serious face. After thinking about Boss Jiang Zhu and other leaders nodding, he began to describe his reasons: "The possibility of a financial crisis in Southeast Asia is not because Jia is sensational. There are obvious internal and external factors. First of all, internal factors, the development of Southeast Asia, to a large extent, is the same as the previous development of our country, relying on foreign investment and low-cost labor factors to do OEM. But they are also The United States is fooled, and it is fooled by the United States into thinking that the market economy does not care about anything, but it does not know that the United States itself is a mixed economy that pays attention to government regulation. Under such circumstances, the financial system is extremely open to the outside world, and at the same time, all kinds of advanced consumption, This all laid the groundwork for the entry of flies. At the same time, in the process of economic growth in these years, Southeast Asian countries have not perfected their domestic industrial chains, but continued to expand cheap artificial agents like spreading a big pie. In this way, relying on unlimited foreign investment and labor to improve the economy will make the battle line too long, and only care about market share, regardless of the return on investment ratio.

Even under all kinds of deception, they chose an export-oriented economy. This is understandable for small countries, because their internal market is not large enough, but an excessively export-oriented economy is indeed very easy to be stuck by the outside world.At the beginning, a large amount of foreign capital or even borrowed foreign debt was invested in the market. The influx of a large amount of funds led to rapid growth of output, and the rapid growth of output led to rapid growth of exports, which in turn led to rapid economic growth.Rapid economic growth has brought about high inflation, and high inflation has brought about increases in labor costs and loan interest rates. Next, the near-fixed exchange rate against a basket of currencies coupled with domestic high growth and high inflation will attract A large amount of hot money flows in for speculation, and the large inflow of hot money leads to a further increase in labor costs. At this time, export profits are reduced, and the balance of payments begins to become unbalanced. slow……"

When Jia Hongjian was analyzing, he often produced some research data from time to time, and from time to time he produced analysis articles by foreign economists to prove his views.Under his system of views, everyone here can understand one thing along the line, that is, Southeast Asia has actually reached a turning point, that is to say, it is equivalent to the rapid economic growth in the golden age of Japan. It's time for the simple foundry to upgrade to a more technical field!But the external environment of this era is not very good. Japan was in the golden age of the Cold War, and the United States needed a vase to show the correctness of their model. Of course, they would support Japan, but in this era, the Soviet Union had already fallen. The United States does not need to prove the correctness of their model to anyone, because the fallen Soviet Union has used their deaths to prove that the United States is the winner, and the winner should definitely be correct.So under such circumstances, fattened pigs have to be killed, and sheep have to be shaved!

Jia Hongjian even took out the ratio of investment in education R&D in Southeast Asian countries to GDP to illustrate the problem. The ratio in European and American countries is relatively high. Even in China in 1995, the ratio was as high as 1.5%. It is expected that there will be more in the future. It needs to rise to the average level of developed countries of about 3%, but at this time Singapore's ratio is 1.12%, and Hong Kong's ratio is even lower to 0.05%!

In this way, when a country earns a lot of money, but does not use it to train more college students and train more scientific and technological talents, then the enterprise upgrade cannot be completed by itself, and the extra money in the society will flow to Fields that are more frothy, such as the stock market and real estate market The stock market and real estate market in the five Southeast Asian countries have not fallen for more than ten years, and they have only risen but not fallen all the way!Therefore, according to Jia Hongjian's analysis, the five Southeast Asian countries have crossed the industrialization era in a very short period of time, and entered the post-industrialized financial era in Europe and America!There are more and more speculators and investors in the market. On the contrary, it is becoming more and more difficult to do business because of the rise of China. At the same time, some industrial entrepreneurs in Southeast Asia have found that it is too slow to make money in business. They might as well use the money to speculate in real estate and stocks. , In this way, the industrial base of Southeast Asia was further hollowed out, which can be said to be direct de-industrialization!In other words, these Southeast Asian countries, when they themselves were only OEMs, they have already begun to invest money in the financial market to play the "virtual field" of the stock market, the property market, and even financial derivatives. After there are too many children, the financial industry, which is supposed to serve the industry, will take the lead!Such a consequence, if there is a crisis, it will definitely be unlucky, just like the American crisis predicted by Jia Hongjian, whether it is detonated from the outside or from the inside, anyway, after the detonation, it must be because the industry is shrinking and cannot provide enough jobs. , so that a large number of unemployed people will cause social unrest instead!

"According to my personal survey, in Southeast Asia, 33% of bank loans in Singapore go to the real estate industry, 30% in Malaysia, 20% in Indonesia, 50% in Thailand, and 11% in the Philippines. Such a result is the real estate market and balloons. Once the capital flees and property prices plummet, it will definitely cause a large number of bad debts in the bank in an instant, and a large amount of national savings and even a lifetime will continue to be evaporated!" (To be continued.)