The American Kill Line: I Can Predict the Future

It's another Monday that's making me feel happy.

Ron yawned as he took the elevator to the 38th floor.

The mare had such a bad temper that even this experienced cowboy was thoroughly tormented.

"Mr." Bruce Donovan, the newly hired technical department manager, immediately stood up to greet his boss as he approached.

He is 28 years old, from Arkansas, and graduated from Stanford University (computer science department).

Has 4 years of experience in developing core systems for quantitative funds.

Previously, he also served as a core member of the technology department at a hedge fund.

Young and energetic.

Ron prefers energetic young people to coming to the company and facing a bunch of middle-aged, jaded old men all day.

Therefore, his first requirement for hiring is age.

Ron walked over to his workstation and patted him on the shoulder: "Good luck, Bruce, I believe in you. First, get the team up and running. If you need any help, you can go to Tony at Merrill Lynch."

"Yes, Mr." Bruce straightened his back and replied loudly.

Ron nodded in satisfaction.

He then went to the finance office.

"Mr. Hunter, coffee or tea?"

"I'm just sitting here casually, Sophia. Don't be so formal, just call me Ron."

Ron raised his hand to indicate to Sophia that she didn't need to be so polite.

Sofia acted as if she hadn't heard anything and made the boss a cup of black tea.

Then he produced several documents: "Mr. Hunter, the Melrose II Fund sent these over this morning, saying they've reached an agreement with you. I've already had them reviewed by my lawyers. Could you please check if the investment amount is correct?"

Sofia, dressed in a gray business suit and wearing old-fashioned black-rimmed glasses, spoke in a stiff, rigid voice devoid of warmth.

Even brewing tea for his boss seemed very formulaic.

She's only 31 years old, but she gives off the kind of aged vigor that only people in their forties or fifties have.

Similarly, they are calm and meticulous in their work.

He graduated from NYU Stern School of Business and holds a Master of Taxation degree from the University of Pennsylvania.

He once managed a single-family office with assets of $20 billion.

Ron flipped through several contracts, and after confirming that there were no problems, he readily signed them.

Back in his office, Ron turned on his computer and projected the Merrill Lynch system, the JPMorgan Chase system, and the financial media community onto three screens.

Then he leaned back in the sofa chair and leisurely watched the market trends.

As expected, the market has raised serious doubts about the EU's intervention in the foreign exchange market.

The euro has been trending downwards in recent days.

All it takes is a trigger to cause the confidence built up by the EU's €7500 billion bailout plan to collapse in an instant.

Of course, this is from Ron's perspective.

The forex trading community is also bustling with activity right now.

"Brothers, I feel like I've been deceived by the EU. There was no such thing as a bailout, and the 7500 billion is fake."

"Be confident, they've been lying to you all along."

"Brother, do you really think an alliance centered around a defeated nation can tell you a single word of truth?!"

"Nonsense, Italy has always been an ally."

"Yes, yes, yes, you Italians only set off fireworks in Ethiopia!"

"I am Ethiopian, and I speak for Italy. My great-grandmother said that they left behind many advanced weapons when they left."

"Fuck, we've found the problem with the Euro's collapse—there's a traitor in the ranks!"

"That's right. As long as the traitor isn't eliminated, the euro will never recover. I've decided to short the euro!"

"I think the euro has bottomed out, and a rebound is coming!"

"Fuck, this is a rebound! Tell me, are you Italian? I'm going to short the euro, even Jesus couldn't stop me!"

"That's right, shorting the euro is useless, even if Jesus came!"

"Where's that gay guy from Castro? Go stab that Italian to death."

"Really? Does anyone have his address?"

"Damn it, why hasn't this guy's account been banned yet? I'm going to complain about this shitty platform."

Ron wholeheartedly agreed and promptly reported the gay man.

For two days in a row, Ron was watching the market and browsing stock forums.

I occasionally go along to interviews.

1.2290 appears to be a support level for the euro, as several large sell orders during the session failed to break through it.

There are faint signs of an upward trend.

Victor and Tony called several times, suggesting that the position be closed.

"Ron, close all positions. We're still making a huge profit at 120 points. If we wait any longer, the market will fluctuate too much."

"I said, I'll wait one more day."

Ron was like a crazy gambler, and no amount of persuasion could change his mind.

At five o'clock in the morning, a news report woke up all the sleeping financial investors around the world.

Hello, Moto——

A sudden, urgent cell phone ringtone broke the silence of the room.

Ron, who had been lying on the sofa in the study and hadn't slept for long, suddenly opened his eyes and grabbed his phone from the table.

"Ron! Are you God?!"

"You saw that, didn't you! My God!"

"Ron, we won again! You're God!"

Viktor on the other end of the phone almost roared to vent his excitement.

Ron quickly went to the computer and opened the international news.

[At 11:00 AM local time in Hungary on June 3, Lójos Kosá, the new Vice President of the Hungarian government, stated at an economic seminar in Debrecen that Hungary is facing serious fiscal problems and may fall into a debt crisis like Greece.]

"Victor, how many VIX contracts did we buy on the 28th? What was the cost?" Ron stared at the number 40 on the VIX chart.

"Each contract purchased on the 28th cost $37100, and a total of 8100 contracts were purchased."

"Sell these 8100 tickets."

"Okay," Victor gave the order to the team.

He immediately asked, "And what about the euro?"

"Don't rush into anything for now."

Ron looked at the euro exchange rate on the computer screen and saw a straight line sloping down from the support level of 1.2200, finally settling at 1.2220.

The announcement took less than five minutes.

However, the 1.2220 level has reached a critical point.

Without further negative news, it will be difficult to break through in the short term.

This is an inevitable trend, and no institution or investment bank can reverse it.

Moreover, for top-tier institutions, their strategy involves macro-level allocation, sovereign debt trading, asset class rotation, and corporate acquisitions.

We make money from trends and cycles, not from profiting from small gains by individual institutions.

Top-tier institutions face extremely high costs when making such moves and would not waste hundreds of billions of dollars on counter-trend manipulation for exposure of a few billion dollars.

"Ron, don't forget, tomorrow is Friday."

"Friday?" Ron paused for a moment, then realized, "You mean the non-farm payroll data?"

Victor hesitated: "Ron, are we really not going to close the position? Once the non-farm payroll data is released, the euro might rise."

Non-farm payroll data is a core indicator for measuring the health of the U.S. economy.

Under normal circumstances, strong data indicates an overheated economy, and the market will expect the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts or even raise rates in order to control inflation.

Conversely, if the data is weak, the market will expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more quickly and significantly in order to stimulate the economy.

To put it bluntly: when the US dollar is strong, the euro is weak.

A weak dollar means a strong euro.

Ron picked up a cigarette from the table, lit it, pondered for a moment, and shook his head, saying:

"Victor, do you think it's possible that if the non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations, it could exacerbate market panic? If it were me, I would prefer the less risky US dollar."

"Escape pod psychology?" Victor nodded slightly. "That possibility cannot be ruled out."

When everyone is fleeing for their lives, people only crowd into the sturdiest cabins, without considering whether the cabins themselves are leaking.

Victor now blindly trusts Ron, so he didn't try to persuade him any further.

The two then checked the VIX, which had climbed to a high of 41 points.

The 8000 orders were released slowly and quickly absorbed by the market.

The overall situation is settled; now it's just a matter of how high it can go.

Even if you sell them all now, you'll still make a huge profit.

However, as I said before, the advantage is on our side, so there's no rush.

After hanging up the phone, Ron checked the messages he had received during the call.

They were all sent by the company's on-duty staff.

It seems the call didn't go through.

Ron dialed Bruce's number and offered a few words of encouragement.

They're young people after all; they're energetic.

They voluntarily stayed to work overtime.

Even after staying up all night, he still speaks with such a strong voice.