The American Kill Line: I Can Predict the Future

At 8:30 a.m. on Friday, the Department of Agriculture (DOL) announced that non-farm payrolls increased by 83,000 in May and the unemployment rate was 9.7%.

Both figures increased compared to the previous values, but the non-farm payroll data was far weaker than expected.

This indicates that the momentum of the US economic recovery remains insufficient.

The most direct impact is reflected in the three major US stock indices.

The three major U.S. stock indexes plummeted at the opening of trading this morning.

The VIX fear index surged back to 43 points from a drop of 38 points yesterday.

In the foreign exchange market, it was initially thought that the euro would surge after the US stock market suffered a severe blow.

Surprisingly, the euro only lifted slightly just before the non-farm payroll data was released.

It then immediately slid down.

It quickly broke through yesterday's support level of 1.2220 and continued to fall...

It ultimately landed at 1.2136.

On the 38th floor of the TEP Building, in the trading room, Brian and five newly joined young traders all stared at the man below the big screen.

Ron paced back and forth on the stage.

Tony and Victor's anxious yet excited voices came through the earpiece.

"Ron, hurry, get ready to close the position."

"This is the best position; there's no better opportunity."

"Ron, what are you waiting for?"

Yeah, what are we waiting for?

Whether it's spot or options trading in Euros, or spot trading in VIX, selling now will inevitably result in a huge profit.

Finally, Ron stopped.

Amidst everyone's expectant gazes, he said in a deep voice:

"Wait a little longer. Apart from the euro options gradually closing out by a third, everything else remains unchanged."

A silence.

Both the trading room at Merrill Lynch and Ron's company were as still as a stagnant pool at that moment.

They then quickly got to work.

boom--

Tony, in his forties, slammed his hand heavily on the keyboard.

"Damn it, what the hell are they waiting for?!"

Tony's outburst indicated that everyone was now questioning Ron.

Even the few traders newly hired by his company had eyes full of confusion, doubt, and bewilderment...

They didn't understand what this man was waiting for.

The best outcome would be to close all positions now, taking advantage of the peak trading volume. As long as they slow down, profits can be maximized.

If we wait any longer, the market will inevitably correct itself.

Ron didn't know what he was waiting for.

But it's clear that neither the euro nor the VIX has met expectations.

He stood in front of the floor-to-ceiling window, gazing at the New York Stock Exchange across the street.

No one in the company dared to disturb them; even the footsteps when drinking water or going to the toilet were deliberately kept very quiet.

Meanwhile, at Merrill Lynch, a hastily assembled trading team was creating quite a commotion.

The traders were all talking amongst themselves.

Tony calmed down from his outburst, but his eyes still betrayed his confusion and doubt.

Viktor was the only one silently staring at the Euro and VIX displays on his computer.

The commotion quickly alerted senior executives at Merrill Lynch.

A risk management manager came over, and after learning what had happened, he smiled at Tony with a mocking tone:

"That's hard to understand, isn't it, Tony? If you'd been to Las Vegas, you wouldn't be so confused."

The gambler's mentality is the belief that you will earn more money later.

Tony ignored him; facts speak louder than words.

The market has already corrected, and they missed the best time to close their positions.

Even if you close your position now, you can still make a profit.

But this cannot erase Ron's mistakes in decision-making.

"Blindly betting is called gambling; sticking to a goal is called investing."

A middle-aged man in his fifties, smoking a pipe, appeared at the entrance of the trading room.

Everyone looked in the direction of the sound, and then stood up in unison:

"Mr. Rubinov."

Tony and the risk assessment manager quickly ran up to the middle-aged man:

"gentlemen."

The middle-aged man in front of me is named Thomas Montag, the CEO of Merrill Lynch.

He nodded slightly, stepped into the trading room, and inquired about the details of the incident.

Aside from the number of shares held and the specific prices, Tony didn't hide anything else.

They all signed confidentiality agreements, and many things have strict confidentiality clauses.

Even when facing Thomas Montag, the CEO, they would try to say as little as possible.

Besides, there was an "outsider" standing nearby.

Thomas Montag smiled noncommittally after hearing this.

Seeing this, the head of the risk department feigned doubt and asked, "Sir, what you just said suggests you have a high opinion of Mr. Hunter?"

This seemingly probing question actually expresses his doubt about Ron's abilities.

Tony's face turned ashen, and he glared fiercely at the meddlesome guy who had come to interfere.

Thomas Montag took a drag of his cigarette and asked with a smile, "And what do you think?"

The head of the risk department said in a deep voice, "Sir, I do professional risk assessment. In my view, every transaction has a risk value; the difference lies in whether it is high or low."

He looked up and gave Tony a disdainful glance. He knew Tony's plan—to pin his hopes for advancement on this brute.

In his view, this is undoubtedly a disguised form of gambler's mentality.

"In my opinion, Mr. Hunter's previous operations were undoubtedly the riskiest clients I have ever seen. He was like a deer drinking water without sensing the danger, still thinking about the grass by the river even after he was full."

"Sam, watch your words. Ron is one of our VIP clients."

Tony couldn't hold back any longer and shouted, "Besides, how can you be sure Ron is a elk and not a tiger or leopard!"

The head of the risk department shrugged indifferently: "I'm just making a professional judgment. Besides, tigers and leopards never put themselves in danger, and they certainly understand the principle of knowing when to quit while they're ahead."

Tony's face turned ashen; he was speechless after being rebuked.

Because in his heart, Ron's decision today was indeed unwise.

"Alright." Thomas Montag slammed his pipe down on the table. "It's just a discussion, no need to be confrontational. Time will tell."

"Yes, sir." Sam looked at Tony smugly.

At that moment, while everyone's attention was focused on this scene, and Tony and Sam were arguing, no one noticed that Victor, who had been silent all along, was acting very strangely.

He kept his eyes on the trading screen while dialing Ron's number.

The call was answered quickly.

A familiar voice came through the headphones.

"Ron!" Victor's throat trembled slightly, and he stood up unconsciously.

"OK! I know... Yes, I saw it!"

"All VIX have been sold, right? OK, no problem."

"What? Only half of the euro options were sold? Fine, OK, you decide."

As the suppressed emotions gradually dissipated, his voice grew louder and louder.

A trader noticed his state and quickly looked at the projection screen on the wall.

On the Euro page, a straight line shot down from the clouds...

Immediately, the trader exclaimed:

"Oh my God!"

Just then, Victor raised his hands, clapped his hands loudly, and shouted at the trader:

"Everyone—listen up, everyone, back at your workstations, follow my instructions!"

In an instant, all the traders turned their attention to Victor and saw the candlestick chart on the big screen.

Immediately, chaos erupted in the trading room.

Someone cried out in surprise, their teacup knocked over; someone's computer froze, and they angrily pounded on the keyboard; someone, ignoring the files scattered all over the floor, stumbled back to their workstation...

"Trade VIX options first, and prepare to sell when the price rises above 45 points."

"Don't rush, listen to my instructions. Number 001, you go first..."

Tony reacted almost instantly. Suppressing his emotions, he took a deep breath and apologized to Thomas Montag:

"Sir, I'll go now."

Thomas Montag nodded slightly: "Go ahead, and remember to come to my office when you're done."

"Yes, sir."

Tony felt a surge of triumph and walked smugly to his workstation.

He even deliberately circled around, lightly bumping into Sam as he passed by.

Sam didn't react, his eyes fixed blankly on the data projected on the wall, muttering to himself:

"This is impossible..."

"Looks like he's finally found his target." Thomas Montag stood up, patted Sam on the shoulder, and said in a low voice:

"Sam, your risk management department is being a bit lax."

Merrill Lynch has serious internal problems, and even after a reshuffle, many issues remain.

Thomas Montag used this opportunity to give the risk assessment department a warning.