When I write a bug it becomes the core gameplay

Chapter 522: The Psychology of Card Drawing

"Let the players...the more they smoke, the worse they get??"

Lilith was shocked, obviously this was something she had never thought of doing.

At present, the card drawing of krypton gold games can basically be described as "European and African conservation".

Although this is not the case individually, some players may always be good, and some players may always be wrong, but overall, it is indeed conserved.

Some non-Emirati players are struggling to move forward because other European players are calming down in the years.

From the perspective of game manufacturers, except for a few really shameless manufacturers who choose to secretly change data and do nothing, most game manufacturers will not mess with the probability of drawing cards in the game.

The reason is also very simple:

Strictly speaking, the positioning of krypton gold game manufacturers is consistent with that of casinos.

The casino makes money from rake, so no matter whether the gambler loses or wins, the casino will not lose money.

The scenario in many people’s fantasy of “gamblers winning too much and the casino won’t let them go” will never happen at all.

On the contrary, the casino will **** the gamblers back with great fanfare and publicize it vigorously. After all, the statement "the gamblers really won money in this casino" is conducive to attracting more people to gamble.

The same goes for krypton gold games.

Although most of the krypton gold game manufacturers will strictly control the shipment rate of the UP pool, and players will always encounter situations where the advance payment is not available and the small guarantee is distorted, but in general, krypton gold game manufacturers will still try their best to Maintain the fairness and justice of the entire card drawing mechanism, and even welcome those European Emperor players to spread special situations such as "even gold" and "double gold".

To break this situation, the krypton gold card drawing system must be made into a system that "most people are not satisfied with".

So Lilith’s question is: “It seems okay to make players become more and more angry, but how to do it?”

Gu Fan explained: "It's very simple. Although the official requires all game manufacturers to indicate the probability of shipment in the card drawing system, there is no exact requirement for the specific value.

“And what is required is often the ‘minimum value’ and ‘guaranteed value’, rather than having to write out all the most realistic probabilities and mechanisms.

"In this case, it gives us a certain amount of room for maneuver."

Lilith nodded slightly, this kind of thing is not difficult to verify.

Just open any mobile card-gaining game and you will find corresponding instructions in the card-gaining system.

for example:

"In this issue's UP pool for character A, the basic probability of obtaining a five-star character is 1.4%. When a five-star character appears, the probability of obtaining character A is 55%. The maximum probability of obtaining character A is 140 draws."

If similar description words appear, you can understand it like this:

Every time the player draws, there is a 1.4% probability of getting a five-star character.

But this five-star character is not necessarily the UP pool character that the player wants. It may also be some five-star character that is not very powerful in the permanent pool.

This point is also explained: when the player draws a five-star character, which is commonly known as "withdrawing money", the probability of getting character A in the UP pool is 55%, which means there is a 45% probability of getting other unwanted five-stars from the permanent pool. Role.

But merely specifying probabilities is not enough.

Because according to expectations, the 1.4% probability means that it should be out at around 70 draws, but if it is a true probability, there must be a situation where a large number of players do not get out at 70 draws.

Therefore, the game is basically full of false probabilities.

The actual approach is that when a player has not withdrawn money after drawing around 60 cards, the probability of withdrawing money will be greatly increased when another card is drawn.

For example, before every time it didn't come out, the probability increased by 1%, but after 60 draws, the probability before it came out directly increased by 5% or even 10%.

This ensures that players will definitely withdraw money before and after 70 draws, which triggers a "small guarantee".

For players, it takes 70 draws to withdraw money, which is already very strange.

However, if you actually analyze this system, you will find that game manufacturers have generally increased their shipment rates.

Those players who were lucky enough to withdraw gold did not need 70 draws; and those players who were unlucky and could not withdraw at 70 draws were forced by the officials to stuff a gold into their account at 70 draws.

Therefore, in actual calculation, the overall extraction rate for players to extract a five-star character is much higher than 1.4%.

However, the game developer will not write the real probability, but will only write the most basic expected probability of 1.4%. For this, the official rules are completely allowed.

If game manufacturers really want to, they can also reverse virtual marking. For example, they say their game shipment rate is 1%, but in fact it is 5%.

But basically no manufacturer would do this. After all, high shipment rates of their own games are already a relatively conscientious act of profit-sharing, and of course they need to be publicized.

Even if the players are not grateful, it would be better if they curse less.

Players may not be able to feel the reverse virtual mark, and they do not feel that it is an official profit concession, but only feel that they are lucky. Isn't that a free profit?

At this time, Gu Fan wanted to take advantage of this.

"Mr. Li, that's what I think.

“First of all, the krypton gold system itself is a black box, and players actually don’t fully understand what is in this black box.

"Secondly, although the official wants to check this black box, they do not control all the mechanisms. They only require that the guaranteed probability we promote is consistent with the real situation in the game. As for how it is consistent, there are no specific requirements. .

"Based on the above two points, we can find a way to raise the players' psychological expectations when their perception is not strong at the beginning, and then let them fall to the ground hard!

"This is called 'It is easy to go from frugality to luxury, but it is difficult to go from luxury to frugality'.

“We designed a krypton gold card drawing system that ‘as the number of draws increases, the probability of shipment becomes lower and lower’.

“Of course, this system needs to be somewhat confusing, and we still have to distinguish European emperors and non-chiefs among the crowd, so that players can still have randomness every time they draw a card.

“In other words, all players meet the general premise that ‘the higher the draw number, the lower the probability of shipment’. However, under this general premise, some are good and some are not.

"Our goal is to make players feel vaguely that something is wrong, but not completely solid."

Lilith frowned slightly: "Can the official side agree?"

Gu Fan continued: "This is the issue we discussed before: the official only requires that the basic extraction probability of five-star characters is not less than 0.5%, and the probability we announce must be real and cannot be false, but it can be reversed. virtual mark.

"So we can completely follow this rule and design a system where the more we draw, the more we fail."

“Our basic drawing probability for five-star characters is set at 0.5%. This number is lower than the current common krypton gold games, but it doesn’t matter.

“Like other cash-based games, we open two UP pools every month. The first half of the month is for new characters, and the second half of the month is for old characters.

"Our actual probability is:

“In the same UP pool, the higher the probability of shipment is, the higher the probability of shipment is, while the higher the probability of shipment is, the lower the probability is.

“Other games use 60 draws, 80 draws, and 160 draws as a cycle, but we use 1,000 draws as a cycle.

"Within 1,000 draws, the basic draw probability of our five-star characters is 0.5%, and the comprehensive draw probability is 1.5%, but the draw probability decreases step by step.

“That is, the first 100 draws have the highest comprehensive extraction probability, and the last 100 draws have the lowest comprehensive extraction probability, but on average, the comprehensive extraction probability can reach 1.5%.

“The front is more conscientious than other game manufacturers, but the back and on average are worse than other game manufacturers.

“Because most players will not draw more than 300 cards in each card pool, so for multiple UP pools, the overall shipping probability of the UP pool in the front is higher, while the overall shipping probability of the UP pool in the back is lower. Low.

“When it reaches a certain level, it will bottom out and recalculate.

"For example, we have two UP pools each month, the first half and the second half. Players earn 300 draws in the first half of the pool, and 200 draws in the second half of the pool. Then next month, they earn 300 draws in the first half of the pool. 300 draws were earned in the pool, and 200 draws were earned in the second half of the pool.

"At this time, he will obviously feel that this month is much different than the last month, and the second half of the pool is much different than the upper half of the pool.

“There will be a feeling of ‘the more you smoke, the more you feel bad’.

"But when he draws 1,000 draws, he will bottom out and recalculate, and the draw probability will increase again, so that he will not be depressed enough to quit the game."

Lilith felt a little brain-burning, and she frowned in thought.

After a long time, she nodded slowly: "It sounds reasonable."

This principle is actually very simple, it is just a psychological effect.

From a probability perspective, there is actually no fundamental difference between this approach and that of other game manufacturers.

(End of chapter)